Caesar’s. After a muted Game 1 performance, Anthony Edwards has now failed to clear this line in four of five games against the Thunder. The one over came in a game where the Wolves were without both Julius Randle and Donte DiVencenzo. The trio of Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso have put the clamps on Edwards in each matchup (Ant Man has shot 11/31 against the trio across all five games). I’m tacking on assists too, as the potential assists are largely reliant on the Wolves making three pointers. Overall, the Thunder have excelled at defending the opposing number one option, and I expect that to continue tonight.

We successfully backed Julius Randle in Game 1 of this series, but we’re going to fade the former All-Star tonight. Randle has certainly been tremendous in these playoffs and done a lot to shed his playoff disappointment label. With that being said, Randle is playing above his head and I don’t believe his current shooting splits are sustainable, particularly from behind the arc. Couple that with facing the best three point defense in the league, on the road, where the Wolves are nearly double digit underdogs, in addition to a low total, this looks like a great spot to fade him to me. I’d play this for a full unit at 19.5.

Jaden McDaniels played just 24 minutes before fouling out of Game 1, but he still collected at least six rebounds for the fifth straight time versus OKC. In Game 2, the defensive stalwart should return to his normal role playing about 35 minutes. Post-All Star Break, McDaniels has averaged 6.1 rebounds. He is critical in this matchup and should get the minutes he needs to go Over 5.5 again.

Julius Randle has completely blown past this number in five straight games and nine of the past 10. And we are getting 18.5 (BetRivers-affiliated books tend to be a bit contrarian) when I see red-hot expert Mike Barner played this at 19.5. Our model has JR at 18.8 points.

On Tuesday, a slow-paced first half picked up the pace considerably with OKC scoring 70 points after intermission. Unfortunately for the T-wolves, they remained stuck in neutral, and the scoreline only reached 198. We suspect that will be an outlier scoreline in this series, despite OKC's defensive prowess. The four regular-season meetings all landed 217 or higher, while Minnesota landed over in three of the last four in the preceding Golden State series, while OKC hit this series on a 6-2 over run. Mostly, we expect far more from T-Wolves Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and Mike Conley than their 16 combined points from Game One. Expect Ant Edwards to take more than 13 shots (and score more than 18 points). Play Wolves-Thunder Over.

Chet Holmgren scored 15 points across 26 minutes in Game 1 against the Timberwolves. He is now averaging 15.7 points per game in the playoffs. In 12 playoff games, he scored at least 14 points eight times. Helping his cause is that he is averaging 30 minutes per game in the playoffs, which is up from 27 minutes per game during the regular season. I think the Timberwolves keep Game 2 close into the fourth quarter, which should result in Holmgren playing around 30 minutes again.

The Thunder held the Timberwolves to 88 points in Game 1. However, they didn’t slow down Julius Randle, who hit five three-pointers on his way to scoring 28 points. Randle has averaged 24.3 points in the playoffs, scoring at least 20 points in nine of 11 games. During the regular season, he averaged 32 minutes and 13.6 shot attempts per game. In the playoffs, he has averaged 38 minutes and 16.5 shot attempts per game. With plenty of minutes and shot attempts likely coming his way in Game 2, I like his chances to score at least 20 points again.

DraftKings. Jalen Williams has now cleared this combined line in nine of the Thunder’s 12 playoff games. He’s also surpassed this total in two of three regular season matchups against Minnesota, and he’s coming off an 8-rebound, 5-assist performance in game 1. I like him to continue to stuff the stat sheet in game 2 - especially as the Thunder have been featuring more small-ball lineups. I’m also expecting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage rate to normalize a bit (39.5% in Game 1), which should open up some more opportunities for Williams.

Donte DiVincenzo went 3 for 14 in Game 1, part of a horrific shooting perfomance from the Timberwolves' bench. That includes DiVincenzo going 1 of 9 on wide-open 3-point attempts. The Thunder will continue focusing on Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, locking down the paint, and daring Minnesota's role players to shoot. What's encouraging is that DiVincenzo played 30 minutes to Mike Conley's 23 and that he repeatedly got good looks. Look for DiVincenzo to hit a few open shots and also penetrate and create more in Game 2.

Anthony Edwards and Minnesota struggled offensively in game one as they shot thirty five percent as a team. Edwards himself was not aggressive enough as he took just thirteen shots. He also tweaked his ankle again for the third time this postseason. In round one during game four when he tweaked his ankle he scored a series high 43 points, and last round against the Warriors he also scored a series high 36 points after tweaking his ankle in game two. Play his over tonight.

A miserable second half saw the Game One scoreline go pear-shaped on the T-wolves. From Julius Randle not getting enough touches in the 2nd half after scoring 20 before intermission, Ant Edwards taking only 13 shots, and none of the "others" making much impact after being centrally involved earlier in the playoffs, OKC roars to a 1-0 series edge. The turnovers leading to 31 Thunder points reminded of the first meeting this season when the T-wolves were guilty of 23 in another loss to OKC, though they cut down that number drastically in the next three meetings. Remember, Minnesota played poorly in Game 1 of the Warriors series before roaring back, and here's another venerable NBA playoff zig-zag to watch. Play T-wolves.

The Wolves will probably shoot the ball better, but OKC's interior defense looks like a major problem for them and if they settle for forced threes, they are cooked. ANT's ankle gives me some pause. OKC had a slow start Game 1 but I think they get back to form here. The Thunder have elite +15.4 first half net rating in playoffs (MIN +5.6) and are +7.3 scoring in the first half; MIN +2.2. OKC has led by at least 3 points in 8 of 12 playoff games. OKC led the NBA in first half +/- in the regular season, while the Wolves were just 12th.

We missed this prop in Game 1, with Hartenstein finishing without an assist. But it wasn't for lack of trying—he played well offensively, but teammates missed open looks and he made a few poor passes, resulting in three turnovers. Hartenstein is a capable facilitator when defenses try to get in his face, and we expect him to generate at least five assist opportunities. His season average is 3.6 assists, and his projection for this game is 2.9 and when you can get +$$$ on a line under these two numbers you have to jump on it. The over has hit in 48 of 70 games this season, and after four straight unders with just three total assists, he's due for a bounce-back.

We're locking in the Thunder at -7.5 before the line potentially moves to -8 or higher across sportsbooks. While every seven game series (like OKC vs DEN) is by definition competitive, the individual games haven't been close when Oklahoma City is involved—especially at home. They've posted dominant wins: 40+ and 30+ point blowouts in OKC vs DEN, a 50+ point win, +20 win and a 28-point comeback against Memphis, and a +30 second-half margin in Game 1 versus Minnesota. When a team can play a poor half and still beat a top-tier opponent by 25+ in the playoffs, they're more than capable of covering -7.5 at home again. This Thunder squad is young, hungry, and laser-focused—don't expect them to let up anytime soon.