Bruce's Picks (1 Live)
Bruce's Past Picks
Trends-trends-trends...what to do? There's the Game 3 hex for the Pacers, who have lost and failed to cover all 3s in these playoffs. Then there's the Thunder's 0-7 spread mark as a visitor this postseason. For good measure, OKC is also 0-3 vs. the line in its Game 3s. The Pacers were understandably flat in Game 2, having already guaranteed a road split, and would expect the big guns (Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner) to step it up at home. Indy can make the Thunder play defense sideline-to-sideline, but can't abandon interior scoring as in Game 2. As OKC hasn't been the same team on the road in these playoffs, there's a case for the Pacers. Play Pacers.
We waited almost the entire 48 minutes for Game 2 to clear 228.5, but the scoreline did nudge over on Sunday. There's another gear we can see from Indiana, especially at home in the Fieldhouse, where the Pacers scored 127.5 in their last two as host against the Knicks in the East finals. The big guns for Indiana, especially Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, are capable of inflicting much more scoring damage than they did in Game 2. Note Indy scored 66 points after intermission in its Game 1 win and 56 in the 2nd half of a flat effort on Sunday, and the Pacers have scored 125 or more in three of their last four at home in the playoffs. Play Thunder-Pacers Over.
Who is the AL's hottest pitcher since the beginning of May? It It can be argued that it's KC's Kris Bubic, as across his last six starts, he has an 0.69 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP, both stellar numbers. The Royals should also be in a very ornery mood tonight after being whipped 10-2 last night as rookie starter Noah Cameron finally hit the wall against the big Yankees bats. For New York, however, it's not Max Fried on the mound tonight, but rather Clarke Schmidt, whose numbers are not quite as impressive (including a 4.79 ERA on the road), and the Yanks have lost in three of his last four starts. Play Royals on Money Line
Call us a bit perplexed by the prices in this series and Detroit not being favored for a second straight night in Baltimore. With MLB's best record (Tigers 44-24) against arguably its most disappointing team, the markets seem to be reading a bit too much into efforts by the respective starting pitchers. Which shouldn't be the end-all anyway, especially as the last two quality starts by the Birds' Zach Elfin have come vs. the inconsistent bats of the Chisox and Mariners. Would much rather back the Tigers and Casey Mize, who despite a couple of subpar recent efforts still has a 2.91 ERA this season, and, most importantly, Detroit a winner in seven of his ten starts. Play Tigers on Money Line
Here come the Reds! Don't look now, but Cincy is just 3.5 games out of the last NL wild card spot and gaining momentum fast. Pitching continues to impress, especially Andrew Abbott's complete game shutout in Cleveland last night. Now, it's the turn for Nick Lodolo, who has been very representative this season with a solid 3.21 ERA into Wednesday afternoon as Terry Francona is on the verge of a sweep in his return to Cleveland. The Guardians' offense continues to be in and out, and hardly sure Logan Allen (6.75 ERA last three starts) can outpitch Lodolo. Play Reds on the Money Line.
Jesus Luzardo better hope his last two starts were an aberration....if not, he and the Phils are in trouble. Consider that in those last two outings, Luzardo has been raked for 21 runs and 21 hits, plus 5 walks, across just 5 2/3 IP. To summarize, that's an ERA of 33.33, and a WHIP of 4.59. Sheesh! Let's see Luzardo pull out of this major tailspin before considering a recommendation on the Phils (already 2-10 their last 12) with him on the mound. Meanwhile, the Cubs' Ben Brown is off of his two best starts of the season, surrendering just 2 runs across 13 IP, with 16 Ks, against the Reds and Tigers. Play Cubs on the Money Line.
The Bucs reminded us last night why we don't trust them as favorites, as the offense stalled again in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins. The 10 runs on Monday night were an outlier, as Pittsburgh was held to just 2 runs for the third time in four games. The 27-41 Pirates now turn to matinee starter Bailey Falter, off one of his worst efforts of the season on the mound, surrendering 4 runs and 5 hits across just 3 2/3 IP last Friday vs. the Phils. Note serviceable efforts in the last four starts made by Miami's Cal Quantrill, who's posted a 2.95 ERA that span. Play Marlins on the Money Line.
The Chisox seem to have progressed beyond the knee-jerk, go-against phase mostly because of a young and emerging pitching staff, with rotation pieces like tonight's starter Shane Smith, with a very solid 2.45 ERA across his 12 starts this season. At the moment, however, the go-with vibes are with the ascending Astros, who won another series on the weekend in Cleveland, and look to be into one of their patented June surges, having won 10 of 14 to take control of the AL West race. Lance McCullers is also off of his best effort since his return to active duty, spinning six shutout innings last Tuesday at Pittsburgh, and Houston has won in his last four starts. Play Astros on Run Line
Their win pace has slowed a bit, but with Miles Mikolas on the mound at a very fair price, the Cardinals deserve a lot of attention on Tuesday night. Though Mikolas has been merely okay stat-wise (3.96 ERA and 1.27 WHIP), all the Redbirds have done with him on the mound is win the last seven games in which he has started, not losing since April 23 at Atlanta. Moreover, though a loser in extra innings last night to the Blue Jays, the Cards are 22-12 this season at Busch Stadium. Note Toronto vet Chris Bassitt has had several uneven performances on the mound, and his road marks have been a bit subpar (1-3, 4.96 ERA). Play Cards on Money Line
The Rays are on the move, winning again last night at Fenway Park to make it 15-4 across the past nineteen games. The bats are very alive, scoring another ten runs last night (the fifth time in the past 15 games with double-digit runs) while 30 homers have been belted across the uptick as well. Wednesday starter Ryan Pepiot has also been excelling, as across his last three starts, the ex-Dodger has allowed just two runs, with an 0.92 ERA that span. Meanwhile, the Bosox might still be decompressing from the weekend series vs. the Yankees and the disappointment of last night's extra-innings loss, with Wednesday starter Lucas Giolito having endured some brutal outings as his 6.42 ERA suggests. Play Rays on Run Line
Four meetings now between these sides this season with at least seven goals scored in each, including the first two games of these finals. Florida's depth came in handy in Game 2, leveling the series in OT, after Edmonton came back to win Game One, also in OT. Indeed, OTs in the first two games of this series with regulation time ending 3-3 and 4-4, respectively. The Oilers have enough speed and skill to skate clear of the forecheck traps that the Panthers sprung upon Carolina in the East finals, while Florida's succession of productive lines means Stuart Skinner doesn't have a lot of time to rest in the Edmonton goal. We'll stick with the high-scoring pattern in Game 3. Play Oilers-Panthers Over.
Home edge? Not in these playoffs when the Oilers have been on the road, as once beyond the opening two games vs. the Kings, Edmonton has won seven of eight as a visitor. Even minus key cog Zach Hyman, the Oilers have used their speed and skill to cut thru the Florida defense and provide good chances against Sergei Bobrovsky. Note the three Oilers losses since the first two games of the Kings series have been games in which Edmonton looked like it was about to win, the only real letdown a five-or-so minute span in Game 1 of the Dallas series. We'd be surprised if Edmonton doesn't get one of these games in Sunrise. Play Oilers on the Money Line.
Still a bit bumpy lately for Rays starter Shane Baz, who hasn't quite regained his April form when he spun a 2.45 ERA. Yet his recent outings have at least been serviceable, working into the sixth innings, and Tampa Bay winning three of those. Speaking of winning, the Rays are doing a lot of that lately, taking 14 of their last 18, and along with the Yankees and Tigers are the only AL teams with winning records on the road. Tampa Bay also catches the Bosox off an adrenaline high in the Bronx, taking 2 of 3 vs. the Yanks, and starter Brayan Bello has a 5.63 ERA across his last four starts. Play Rays on Money Line
We're still not comfy laying a price with the Pirates, unaccustomed as they are to the role of favorite after their sweep of the Phils. Another idea here might be on the totals side as Pittsburgh rookie Mike Burrows is off of an impressive 5 1/3 shutout innings last Wednesday in a 3-0 win over the Astros, and the Bucs offense, even in the sweep of the Phils, didn't do much damage (two runs was enough each of the past two days). This is also the return game for once ballyhooed Marlins prospect Eury Perez, who hasn't pitched since 2023 after Tommy John surgery. Only the lowly Rockies have scored fewer runs in the NL than these sides. Play Marlins-Pirates Under