Prop's Picks (1 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
Caesar’s. Luis Ortiz has stayed under this line in seven of his thirteen starts, including five of seven away from home. He struggles outside of Cleveland, with a 5.40 ERA and a 12.2% walk rate. He also struggles more against lefties, with a .796 OPS allowed and a 14.4% walk rate. He’ll get six lefties from Seattle today, who as a team see the second most pitches per plate appearance. And Seattle’s bats have come alive, with a .794 OPS over the last 10 days against right handed pitching.
Caesar’s. Jose Quintana has failed to clear this line in six of his eight starts. He’ll now face off against one of the better contact teams - the Cardinals. St. Louis owns the fifth lowest whiff rate as a team this season, and Quintana’s whiff rate sits in the sixth percentile of all pitchers.
Caesar’s. Buying high on Yoshinobu Yamamoto who has cleared this in three of his last four starts, all being tough matchups. The Giants struggle more on the road against righties (24% K%), are without one of their best hitters (Matt Chapman) and are coming off a series in the Coors Field altitude.
DraftKings. If you’ve been following my bets throughout the years, you know I’m a massive Logan Webb fan. That being said, this is a very high line for the Giants ace in a brutal matchup. The Dodgers have historically hit Webb well (collective .900 OPS against him, in over 210 plate appearances), and they crush righties at home: .924 OPS and a 158 wRC+. Webb has typically struggled a bit more on the road as well - 3.95 ERA and under this line in five of seven starts this season.
DraftKings. Freddy Peralta is a scary fade - he can punch out double digit guys any given start. But the fact is that we’ve seen the Brewers ace pitch to contact a bit more as the season has drawn on. Peralta is under this line in seven of his last ten starts. He’ll get a familiar interdivisional opponent in the Cardinals - St. Louis has been one of the more strikeout resistant teams all season, with a 19% strikeout rate against righties (20% over the last two weeks).
DraftKings. Clay Holmes has stayed under this line in eight of his thirteen starts, including seven of his last eight. Averaging less than a strikeout per inning, Holmes’ strikeout rate sits slightly below average. He’ll face a Rays lineup that features five hitters with below average strikeout rates against right handed pitching. Holmes excels pitching to contact, with an elite ground ball rate, and the Rays only sport a 20% strikeout rate against ground-ball pitchers.
Caesar’s. Michael Soroka has allowed at least five hits in five of his seven starts this season. He pounds the zone, leading all qualified starting pitchers in zone percentage this season. The Mets don’t swing and miss much, with the fourth lowest whiff rate. Thus, I expect a lot of contact today - the Mets as is have a .277 batting average against righties over the last two weeks. Soroka has struggled more against lefties (.259 average), and the Mets likely start six southpaws.
DraftKings. Bailey Ober has failed to clear this line in ten of his 13 starts this season. The Rangers had struggled with strikeouts, but now are trotting out their regular, less K-prone lineup. Over the last week against righties, Texas’s punchout rate has declined to 20%. Ober has below average whiff rates this season, and the Rangers maintain the highest zone swing percentage in baseball. I’m expecting more contact than not today - take the under.
Caesar’s. Pascal Siakam has yet to clear this combined points and assists line this series, and is under in nine of his last fifteen playoff games. While much of the focus is on Tyrese Halliburton’s tough matchup, Siakam has drawn Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso as his individual defenders. Siakam is shooting a combined 3/13 in their coverage. The Thunder defense in general is predicated on keeping opponents scoring outside the paint, ranking number one in that metric in the regular season. Siakam just isn’t a volume jump shooter, and we’ve seen his field goal attempts crater in this series.
DraftKings. Even with the series shifting to Indiana, I’m a little surprised we’re getting the same Alex Caruso points line after his 20-point outburst. He’s now cleared this line in 12 of 15 playoff games when he’s played at least 20 minutes, and he’s coming off consecutive games of 27 minutes. Having averaged 9 points per 25 minutes in the regular season, and this being a fast paced matchup, I’ll gladly bet this line once again.
FanDuel at -120. Reds have won five in a row, and the Guardians have lost six of eight. But what stands out here is the pitching matchup. Nick Lodolo has been solid with a 3.21 ERA (1.25 across his seven road starts). He’s been relying on his changeup more as the season has worn on, and the Guardians are a bottom eight team in weighted runs above average against the pitch. Overall, Cleveland has been brutal against left handed pitching, with a .570 OPS over the last thirty days. Logan Allen is on the bump for the Guardians, and he’s registered a 5.88 ERA over his last eight outings. I’ll buy the Reds momentum here, and take them on the first five innings money-line.
Caesar’s. Dylan Cease has remained under this line in eight of thirteen starts this season. He’ll face off against a patient Dodgers lineup whom Cease has not much success against historically.
DraftKings. Merrill Kelly has cleared this line in each of his last six starts. He’s registered a 30% called plus swinging strike rate over those starts, and seems to have his changeup working in addition to his cutter and four-seam fastball. After a strikeout averse start, the Mariners have come back down to earth, and have the league’s fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate over the last month.
Caesar’s. Brayan Bello has failed to clear this line in six of his nine starts this season. He’s specifically struggled against lefties, allowing a .846 OPS, and a 14.8% walk rate. He’ll face between five and seven left handed hitters in today’s Rays lineup - and Tampa has been mashing right handed pitching of late, with a .797 OPS and 129 wRC+ over the last two weeks.