Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Kansas City's Kris Bubic leads the majors in ERA. ...
Matt's Past Picks
The Halos were good to us last night. Wasn't sure I would go back to them, but the Athletics' best hitter, shortstop and AL Rookie of the Year favorite Jacob Wilson, has been scratched. This season, the Angels are 28-9 when scoring 4+ runs in a game, and I see no reason why they don't get to four tonight against Mitch Spence & Co. Since May 19, the Angels bullpen has a 2.78 ERA that is third in the AL. Los Angeles has won six straight in this series dating to last season.
Heliot Ramos is a fine player batting .294 on the year and obviously you throw in the Coors Field factor. But Ramos isn't Tony Gwynn, so this is a crazy cheap number for two hits even though it wouldn't shock if Ramos gets two. He has not faced Rox rookie starter Carson Palmquist.
There aren't many players being ruled out where I'd go fade their team immediately, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one for the Blue Jays. They lost the other game he didn't start on April 10 in Boston, managing just three runs. Can't say I love the full-game or F5 total even with him out so will play this while the Cards are still getting +1.5. I like Jays starter Chris Bassitt, but his road splits aren't good. And we don't even need a win here.
Washington's MacKenzie Gore has been absolutely dealing in three straight starts with just one earned run allowed over that span, but the Mets' Griffin Canning has a 2.90 ERA on the season and the lineups aren't close. Gore doesn't have great career splits in the series. New York has the fewest home losses in MLB, and the Nats are 15-17 away.
Bucs starter Mitch Keller is massively due a home win at 0-5 there this year despite pitching pretty well at PNC Park other than last time out vs. Houston. He gets no run support at all. Keller has allowed only 0.59 home runs per 9.0 IP this season overall, fifth-best among NL starters. Pittsburgh is playing much better of late and hitting .264 since May 23, the fourth-best mark in MLB during that stretch. Since Don Kelly took over as manager, the staff ERA of 3.19 ranks fifth in the majors. Miami's Sandy Alcantara is 0-4 with a 12.81 ERA on the road this year.
The Athletics are playing a bit better of late but have dropped 11 straight on the road. They have lost the last four starts of lefty Jeffrey Springs anywhere. Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi has given up three earned run or fewer in seven straight (1.33 ERA overall this year at home) and has a career 3.45 ERA in 57.1 innings vs. the A's. When LA scores first, it is 18-11.
Probably could flip a coin at this point. Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky owns a career .884 save percentage and a 3.38 goals against average through 14 games in the Stanley Cup Final. Not great numbers. But just at home, those numbers are .929 and 1.84, respectively. The Cats won three of four at home vs. the Oilers in the 2024 Final and also won on home ice in the RS matchup. Certainly doesn't hurt to have the last line change defensively against Connor McDavid and that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is iffy. But I also nearly played Edmonton +1 ... this series feels that close.
The Jays have won four straight but I struggle to believe they sweep the Twins, one of MLB's best home clubs, especially with Toronto's bullpen quite taxed. Closer Jeff Hoffman saved both in the series so far, for example. Sunday starter Bowden Francis (2-7, 5.84) had a breakout final few months in 2024 but has massively regressed in 2025. Francis is tied for the MLB lead with 17 HRs allowed. The Twins' Joe Ryan has a 2.89 home ERA and had a dominant '24 start against Toronto.
End of a trip and having already won this series, a letdown spot for Houston. Likely no Josh Hader or top setup man Shawn Dubin for the Stros as both pitched Friday and Saturday. No Jose Altuve in the lineup. Obviously a tad more motivation for the Guardians to avoid a pretty rare home sweep. Tanner Bibee has a 2.43 home ERA.
The Rays cashed for us today -- without former All-Star 1B Yandy Diaz, who got a rest day -- and I see no reason not to back them again Saturday vs. awful Miami. Tampa's scheduled starter on the mound is Taj Bradley, who has allowed fewer than three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and gone seven strong in back-to-back. That lone start in there Bradley allowed more than two earned? May 16 in Miami when he gave up five runs over four. But I consider that largely a fluke, and Bradley's home splits are better. The Rays have won four straight and the Marlins have dropped five in a row and totaled just 13 runs.
Looks like the Mets F5 will fail and I don't feel like being underwater today, even if only slightly, so let's throw a half-unit on this. Don't consider it a chase as I'm gonna watch it (with the hockey) and want a rooting interest. Kinda interesting the Giants have a much better record, are home and a starting pitcher with better numbers yet decent dogs. Braves No. 1 catcher Drake Baldwin (.310, 7 HR) is sitting. Solid price at +1.5.
Note that some rain is in the forecast in Denver. I have some modest trap game worries for the Mets, but New York's Kodai Senga has been so good (1.60 ERA) and Colorado's Antonio Senzatela so bad (1-10, 7.14 ERA) that we have to play the F5.
Florida outplayed Edmonton for much of Game 1 before falling in overtime -- just a terrific hockey game overall. Florida had been 31-0 under head coach Paul Maurice in the playoffs when leading after the first period or the second period in a game. The Panthers have lost B2B games in these playoffs just once. Sam Bennett had two goals in the loss and has an active four-game road goal streak, equaling the team record he set across the first two rounds earlier this year.