More shots and more possessions?

Robbie Ray on the mound? Works for us. Rockies getting destroyed on the RL at home and losing by almost 4 runs per game. Gigantes are 11-2 in Ray's starts with 8 wins on the RL.

Thunder games are averaging 113 per first half on the road in playoffs ... and Pacers are averaging 113 at home. Pacers play are frenetic pace at home, more than most, and they won't have as slow of the starts they did in OKC. The PG has to get it going, right? OKC allowing 59/first half on the road and IND won't be held below 50 in the first half again. I love this over 109.5 in alt markets just in case Halliburton is actually hurt and the scoring still slips some. Both these teams can score and score quickly. IND has a +16.9 net rating at home in first half in playoffs; can't forget how significant that's been this postseason.

OKC is battle tested and after going the distance with the Nuggets I expect to see an A road game from them here. They have built up massive late leads in both games in this series and the Thunder can exhale a bit after getting their first finals win. Too much SGA and too many scoring options among the starters and on the bench. The Pacers' PG has been all out of sorts and was better on the road than at home for the postseason on the whole. OKC still hasn't played its best game.

Few people mash RH pitching like Kerry Carpenter and Zach Eflin cannot keep the ball in the park at Camden Yards. He's not getting the ground ball rates he is used to. It's a nice hot night in Baltimore and that pull-side power plays really well with the flag court in right field. Carpenter has a HR in 5 at-bats vs Eflin. Carpenter has 4 HRs in 25 career at-bats at Camden Yards, with a 1.313 OPS.

Casey Mize is a legit frontline starter. Zach Eflin has a soaring HR rate at home and the O's playing around with the ballpark dimensions, again, has done him no favors. The Orioles have a 35-45 record at home (including playoffs) since last June 10, bottom 5 in MLB. This season, at home, they are 27th n K-rate and 27th in W-rate. The Tigers are best team in AL for many reasons. I smell a sweep.

Haven't faded the Rockies nearly enough lately. They are 4-17 on RL last 21 at home and 5-11 on the RL vs division opponents. They are 16.36 on the RL after a loss (losing on average by 3.8 runs) and they are running a starter out there who has a 12.46 ERA at home. Kyle Harrison has real potential on the bump for Gigantes and a 1.50 ERA on the road. Jumping this around -150 now. Giants lineup not great but this is Coors Field.

The kid on the mound has been awesome for the White Sox. Here's their score after 5 INN in his last 7 starts: 1-0, 5-3, 3-6, 1-0, 0-2, 4-2. The White Sox on a 6-0 run on 1st 5 RL and we are playing it a little more conservative here. Lance McCullers has been suspect for the Astros and they routinely trailed after 5 with him on bump. HOU is 23-41-1 in 1st 5 RL on season. They have scored 4 runs or fewer in 8 of the last 12 home games and have not covered at home this season overall.

Twins starter gives me a little pause but the Rangers don't swing the bats much, especially on the road. They are 26th in runs scored on road and Twins are 20th in runs scored at home. Rangers are under in 15 of their last 20 and are 17-5-1 to the under in their last 26 on the road. In Mahle's 13 starters there have been 7 total runs scored in the game on 11 occasions and six totals runs or fewer have been produced in 9 of his last 10 starts. Run support, anyone?

The Guardians are now 4-12 vs LHP and they really struggle against them at home with a 29.2 K rate (4th-worst in MLB) and weak .582 OPS. They couldn't hit soft-tossing Wade Miley from the left side Mon. The Reds 6-2-2 on the first 5 ML in Abbott's starts and they led CLE after 5 last time he faced them. Abbott has a 2.05 ERA on the road with 31 Ks inn 22 IP.

Dustin May has been bad on the road and Nick Pivetta has ben a stud at home. The Friars are 20-10 in Slam Diego and the Dodgers are 16-16 on the road with just 4 wins in 11 games away from Chavez Ravine. Pivetta really excels at keeping the ball in the yard at home and Dodgers run production has been spottier than expected. I like the value here as well with Friars having superior pen. The Friars fare much better against righties and adept at winning low scoring games if that's how this goes.

Neither team is swinging the lumber well right now. Cubbies have 14 runs in last 5 games and have played 6 straight unders on the road. Phillies are under in 5 of last 8 at home and scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 12 games and have scored 37 total runs in that span. Phils have an ace on the mound who is allowing a .183 average at home. Cubs starter has been really solid also

The Thunder slowed down and tried to bleed the clock in the final 5 minutes of Game 1. That won't happen again. They average 122/G in the playoffs at home. This is desperation time which means 48 minutes of high-pace hoops. OKC went 3/17 in the paint (non restricted) in Game 1 after a long layoff. They average 19 PIP in the playoffs. Also show just 29% from catch and shoot spots in Game 1 for 21 points; they average 34/G in C&S spots. Positive regression to the mean is coming here and a return to their normal lineup with real size will help with offensive rebounding and more second-chance shots.

You pay a premium for playing the first half for good reason. OKC has won the first half by 8 points or more in 9 of 10 home playoff games. The Thunder have a ridiculous 30.5 net rating int he first half at home in postseason (nearly twice as good as any other team). They are +15.2 in first half at home in the playoffs and the Pacers are slow starters, -2.3 on road. Maybe OKC blows another big lead but with their season on the line I project them to win the first half by 12 or more. We keep riding this bet.

The BoSox starter is special, but Boston has major issues catching the ball and the pen stinks and the manager keeps having to call out their poor play. Yankees smell blood. NYY crush LHP at home with a .965 OPS, .554 SLG and .401 OBP. They have a ridiculous 14.4% W Rate. Ryan Yarborough has been great for the Yankees and BOS is 5-9 vs lefties. BOS is just 3-5 in their ace's last 8 starts.