Sticking with the plays that got me here ...

Rockies have not been able to hit in this series and Grant Holmes has been very solid at home for ATL, with a 3.12 ERA. Must-sweep series for the Bravos and, lest you forget, COL is 18-34 on the RL vs the NL and 13-23 as a road dog and 18-38 on RL after a loss. Hard to ignore that kind of futility.

Not buying an O's team with a sub .600 OPS vs lefties can get it done twice in a row. Kikuchi gives them problems in general. they are 10-below .500 vs lefties. Halos have been playing solid ball and I like the to avoid the sweep here. O's have one at home all season and that was vs the Pale Hose.

This was a dead over series in the Bronx and I expect it to carry over here. Carlos Rodon is coming back to earth and got shelled by BoSox last weekend and Yanks did the same to Hunter Dobbins. BoSox are over in 5 of last 7 and Yanks over in 8 of 12. NY lead MLB with an .841 OPS vs RHP on road and BOS is 5th in MLB with .806 OPS vs LHP at home. Boston pen has lots of issues and Yanks dealing with some pen injuries.

The O's are 4-15 vs LHP and Tyler Anderson allowed just 1 ER in 5 IP in a Halos win vs them earlier this season. The O's are a bottom 5 team in home winning percentage over the last calendar year (MLB 9-23 on the RL at home if you prefer to go that way here). They have a .550 OPS vs LHP (almost unfathomable) and are also 30th in SLG vs LHP. Tomo Sugano is a command merchant with a penchant for giving up the longball and summer weather is finally here in Baltimore. He's allowed 7 HR in 34 1/3 at home; that could be a problem Sat afternoon. Halos have been hot lately and it's a fairly deep lineup now.

The Pacers have proven they can play with these guys and especially at home. IND is a bear at home in the first half - their 120.9 offensive rating at home in the playoffs in that half is identical to OKC's. OKC has just a -9.2 net rating on road in first half with major defensive issues allowing 60/half. IND is a +16.1 at home in that spot! IND +8.1 in first half at home in the playoffs and OKC -4.8 on the road. Expect another faster start from Indiana. I took this up to +5.5 in alt markets to make it two possessions in 24 mins to beat me. IND ML in the first half probably worth a sprinkle.

Both teams had the fast start I expected in Game 3. But OKC only took 79 shots and just 22 attempted threes. The pace slowed in the second half. I don't anticipate that again. The Pacers will be looking to run, OKC will adjust to being back on the road and wont give away 20 possessions with turnovers. Scoring soared for Game 2 after both teams got a taste of OKC crowd and I project it again for the second game in IND. OKC not nearly as sharp defensively on the road and know they'll likely need at least 120 points in Game 4.

Freddy Peralta is ties for 12th in MLB with a 1.50 ERA in the first 5 innings of home games. He is allowing a .194 avg and .528 OPS in those contests and 45 of his 6 home starts are under this total. I think Erik Fedde, who isn't great on the road, can fare well against a middling lineup. Four of his 6 road starters are under this total in the first 5. The Brewers are 23-12 to the under in the first 5 at home.

The Rockies covered just 6 of their first 23 road games on the RL; they have now covered 7 of the last 11. But that's taken some ridiculous breaks and meltdowns from some opponents and terrible fielding. The Braves have a lot of issues but they'd been a solid play at home and this is a must-win weekend for them. I expect it to be managed as such. German Marquez is an auto-fade. The Rockies are 3-10 with him mound with 8 losses on the RL.

Robbie Ray on the mound? Works for us. Rockies getting destroyed on the RL at home and losing by almost 4 runs per game. Gigantes are 11-2 in Ray's starts with 8 wins on the RL.

Thunder games are averaging 113 per first half on the road in playoffs ... and Pacers are averaging 113 at home. Pacers play are frenetic pace at home, more than most, and they won't have as slow of the starts they did in OKC. The PG has to get it going, right? OKC allowing 59/first half on the road and IND won't be held below 50 in the first half again. I love this over 109.5 in alt markets just in case Halliburton is actually hurt and the scoring still slips some. Both these teams can score and score quickly. IND has a +16.9 net rating at home in first half in playoffs; can't forget how significant that's been this postseason.

OKC is battle tested and after going the distance with the Nuggets I expect to see an A road game from them here. They have built up massive late leads in both games in this series and the Thunder can exhale a bit after getting their first finals win. Too much SGA and too many scoring options among the starters and on the bench. The Pacers' PG has been all out of sorts and was better on the road than at home for the postseason on the whole. OKC still hasn't played its best game.

Few people mash RH pitching like Kerry Carpenter and Zach Eflin cannot keep the ball in the park at Camden Yards. He's not getting the ground ball rates he is used to. It's a nice hot night in Baltimore and that pull-side power plays really well with the flag court in right field. Carpenter has a HR in 5 at-bats vs Eflin. Carpenter has 4 HRs in 25 career at-bats at Camden Yards, with a 1.313 OPS.

Casey Mize is a legit frontline starter. Zach Eflin has a soaring HR rate at home and the O's playing around with the ballpark dimensions, again, has done him no favors. The Orioles have a 35-45 record at home (including playoffs) since last June 10, bottom 5 in MLB. This season, at home, they are 27th n K-rate and 27th in W-rate. The Tigers are best team in AL for many reasons. I smell a sweep.

Haven't faded the Rockies nearly enough lately. They are 4-17 on RL last 21 at home and 5-11 on the RL vs division opponents. They are 16.36 on the RL after a loss (losing on average by 3.8 runs) and they are running a starter out there who has a 12.46 ERA at home. Kyle Harrison has real potential on the bump for Gigantes and a 1.50 ERA on the road. Jumping this around -150 now. Giants lineup not great but this is Coors Field.