The Thunder are not a great rebounding team. During the regular season, they ranked 20th in the league in rebounds allowed per game. In the playoffs, they have allowed the most rebounds per game. In two games against them during the regular season, Pascal Siakam had 10 and nine rebounds. In Game 1, he finished with 10 rebounds as the Thunder turned to more small lineups. There should even be times in this game when Siakam is playing center for the Pacers. I’ll pay the juice and take this over.

Game 1 isn’t until Thursday, but I’m not waiting on this. The odds have been getting worse and the line has even moved to 7.5 in some places, so the time to act is now. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.9 assists per game in the playoffs. He has recorded at least seven assists in eight of his last 12 playoff games. During the regular season, he had eight assists in both meetings with the Pacers. With how often he has the ball in his hands and how fast these two teams play, I’ll take this over.

The Thunder have dominated at home throughout the playoffs. However, there could be a rust factor here, considering that they haven’t played in a week. Also, the Pacers are 6-2 on the road in the playoffs. The Thunder thrive off creating turnovers, but the Pacers averaged the fourth-fewest turnovers per game during the regular season. While I think the Thunder win Game 1, I think the Pacers keep things close enough to cover.

Karl-Anthony Towns has battled with foul trouble for much of the Eastern Conference Finals. Still, he has scored at least 24 points in four of the five games. The one game that he didn’t, he scored 20 points despite playing only 28 minutes. The Pacers don’t have anyone who can slow down Towns, so while there is always the risk of foul trouble with him, I still like this over.

Pascal Siakam is averaging 37 minutes per game in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, he has averaged just 4.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists. He has combined for eight or fewer rebounds and assists in three of the four games. The only game he went over this line was when he had 11 combined in Game 1, which went to overtime. During the regular season, the Knicks allowed the second-fewest rebounds per game and the seventh-fewest assists per game in the league. I like Siakam’s chances of hitting this under.

A move to the bench has not been a detriment to Josh Hart. He played 34 minutes in that role in Game 3, producing eight points and 10 rebounds. Over 36 minutes off the bench in Game 4, he had 12 points and 11 rebounds. He has now reached double-digit rebounds in three of four games in this series against the Pacers, who allowed the ninth-most rebounds per game during the regular season. During the regular season, Hart averaged 10.0 rebounds per game at home. He feeds off the energy of the home crowd, so I like his chances of hitting this over.

Naz Reid averaged a career-high 6.0 rebounds per game during the regular season. In the first two rounds of the playoffs against the Lakers and Warriors, he averaged just 3.6 rebounds. However, this is a much better matchup for him against the Thunder. Not only did the Thunder allow the 11th-most rebounds per game during the regular season, but they have allowed the most rebounds per game in the playoffs. Reid has grabbed at least six rebounds in all four games against them and he even had eight rebounds in three of the games. Look for him to be productive on the boards again.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not only scored 40 points in Game 4, but he also had 10 assists. He only played 28 minutes in Game 3 because of the lopsided score, but he still had six assists. He has produced at least eight assists in each of the other three games in this series. During the regular season, he had at least eight assists in three of four games against the Timberwolves. I don’t think the Timberwolves will go down without a fight, so Gilgeous-Alexander should play enough to have a favorable opportunity to reach this over.

T.J. McConnell hasn’t played more than 15 minutes in any of the three games of the Eastern Conference Finals. However, he combined for at least 12 points and rebounds in each game. In Game 3, he recorded 12 points and three rebounds. He is instant energy off the bench and feeds off the home crowd. He shot 54.3% from the field at home during the regular season, compared to 49.8% on the road. In the playoffs, he has combined for at least 11 points and rebounds in all six games at home. I like his chances to hit that threshold again as the Pacers try to bounce back from a disappointing loss in Game 3.

Karl-Anthony Towns battled foul trouble in Game 3 and struggled to score in the first half. However, he came alive in the fourth quarter and finished with 24 points as the Knicks pulled off a comeback victory. He scored 35 points in Game 1. Although he only played 28 minutes in Game 2, he still scored 20 points. Across his last eight games, Towns has scored at least 21 points six times. In the two games that he didn’t, he had 19 and 20 points. Avoiding foul trouble will be key, but as long as Towns plays around 30 minutes, he has a favorable opportunity to hit this over.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander only played 28 minutes with the Thunder getting blown out in Game 3. Still, he finished with six assists. He had nine assists in Game 1 and eight assists in Game 2. During the regular season, he had at least eight assists in three of four games against the Timberwolves. Expect the Thunder to put up a better fight in Game 4 and keep things close, which should put Gilgeous-Alexander in a favorable spot to hit this over.

When was the last time the Thunder lost two games in a row? Go all the way back to the beginning of April when they lost consecutive games to the Rockets and Lakers. The only other time they lost two consecutive games this season was in November. The Thunder looked like the vastly superior team in this series before getting absolutely trounced in Game 3. Don’t expect the Timberwolves to make 20 three-pointers and shoot 57.3% from the field again like they did in Game 3. I like the Thunder to bounce back in Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Karl-Anthony Towns dominated Game 1, posting 35 points and 12 rebounds across 39 minutes. However, he played just 28 minutes in Game 2. That was his fewest minutes in any playoff game for the Knicks. Still, he finished with 20 points and seven rebounds. In the playoffs, he has averaged 20.9 points and 11.1 rebounds. I expect him to play more than 30 minutes in Game 3 as the Knicks try to finally get a win in the series, so I like this over.

Andrew Nembhard followed up his 15 points in Game 1 by scoring 12 points in Game 2. He has logged at least 35 minutes in both games against the Knicks, boosting his average to 33 minutes per game in the playoffs. Across 12 playoff games, he has scored at least 12 points nine times. With the expectation that he plays upwards of 35 minutes again, I like his chances to hit this over.

Rudy Gobert has struggled in the first two games against the Thunder. He had two points and three rebounds in Game 1. He was a little better in Game 2, but still had just five points and nine rebounds. Over 12 playoff games, he has combined for 16 or fewer points, rebounds and assists eight times. After averaging 33 minutes per game during the regular season, he has averaged just 28 minutes in the playoffs. Given his struggles, he could see limited minutes again in Game 3.