Larry's Picks (2 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
The Brewers have won nine of 10, and I bet them to stay hot behind impressive rookie Chad Patrick. He’s allowed three earned runs over his last three starts. The regression monster is starting to hit Padres starter Randy Vasquez. San Diego also could be down two key hitters due to injury.
Andrew Nembhard averaged 19.5 points in two regular-season meetings with OKC, as the Thunder successfully limited Tyrese Haliburton. Nembhard also has had three strong Game 1s in this postseason, scoring 17, 23 and 15 points. Dating to last season, Nembhard has excelled on the road in the playoffs. Many books have moved to 11.5; I would play it for a half-unit there.
The Rays own the best OPS over the past 15 days, while the Rangers sport the worst. Hard-throwing Jack Leiter is coming off a dominant performance, but I love this matchup for the Tampa Bay lineup. Leiter is giving up too many barrels, not to mention an expected slugging percentage of .448. Back Tampa to send the Rangers to their 12th loss in 16 games.
This is the first game of a day-night doubleheader, following Wednesday's rainout. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has dominated the Royals, this season and lifetime, but there are plenty of warning signs in his metrics. Mikolas has allowed a 42.9 percent hard-hit rate and a .463 expected slugging percentage. K.C.'s Noah Cameron has been brilliant in each of his four starts. Back the Royals, who won 10-7 in St. Louis on Tuesday, to at least be tied through five.
Jose Berrios' underlying metrics aren't nearly as good as his surface numbers indicate. I love the Phillies' offense in this matchup now that Bryce Harper has returned. Harper homered, walked and scored twice in Tuesday's 8-3 win. I bet the Phillies in the first five because I believe they'll give rookie Mick Abel the run support he needs.
The Red Sox have lost eight of 10 as they try to avoid the sweep. The Angels have won three of five since Mike Trout returned, with the slugger going 9 for 18 with five RBI in that span. Wednesday afternoon, I like the Angels to start strong against Lucas Giolito. He's allowing a career-high 43 percent hard-hit rate, and has given up an expected slugging percentage of .517. Back the Angels to at least be tied through five.
The Blue Jays' Ernie Clement, batting sixth and playing first base Sunday, has nine hits in this series already. That includes two homers and three doubles. He is slugging .714 against left-handed pitching as he prepares to face Athletics lefty J.P. Sears. I also bet Clement to go Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI in a market that's not offered here. Lifetime he's 2 for 6 with an RBI against Sears, though neither hit went for extra bases. Back Clement to stay hot.
The Rangers have lost eight of 10, in large part because of their offensive woes. Texas owns an MLB-worst .537 OPS over the last 15 days. Now the Rangers have to deal with Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore (2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). The lefty has allowed two or fewer runs in eight straight starts. Texas counters with Jack Leiter, who carries an expected ERA of 4.87. Back St. Louis to improve to 19-7 in May.
The Giants have lost four of five, scoring eight runs in that five-game span. San Francisco owns the second-worst OPS over the past 15 days, while Miami ranks ninth (.759). Marlins starter Cal Quantrill has overcome a horrific start to the season and has allowed one run in three of his past four outings. Look for MIami to at least be tied through five.
The Angels have lost five straight, scoring five runs in the process. Neither starter in this matchup has been consistent, but the Guardians have a huge edge in the bullpen. Cleveland owns a 4.00 bullpen ERA while the Halos sport an MLB-worst 6.17 bullpen ERA. Back the Guardians to build off their late game-winning rally over the Dodgers on Wednesday.
With the Nationals' shaky bullpen, I bet them in the first five innings behind MacKenzie Gore. The lefty has fanned 18 over his last two starts, and he dominated the Mariners (7 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 8 Ks) when he faced them last season. Gore is in much better form than Seattle starter Emerson Hancock, who is allowing a .507 expected slugging percentage. He has fanned only 28 in 39.1 innings, so I like the Nats' chances to put balls in play and lead after five.
Cristopher Sanchez has a 30 percent strikeout rate and faces a Braves' lineup that's been shaky versus left-handed pitching. Look for Sanchez to clear this prop total for the fourth straight time.
Anthony Edwards was criticized for not shooting enough in Game 4, when he finished with just 16 points, six assists and four rebounds. Edwards' season likely will end Wednesday, and I don't think the superstar will go out quietly. He's had two monster games in this series already. Look for Edwards to play at least 40 minutes and clear this prop total.