Flat-out turned off Game 4 with the Panthers up 3-0. I'm like OK, gonna spend some of that $100 on Arby's -- yes, I have issues and beef and cheddars with Horsie and Arby's sauce will eventually be the end of me physically. And I don't care (well, $68 or so as the Cats were -140ish; feels like the wife purposefully picked a house close to an Arby's and Taco Bell to get rid of me). Can't believe they blew that. I'll just be honest in that I have no idea who wins Saturday but I need a reason not to play the home team. If the Panthers were a bit cheaper at +1, I'd look that way but not doing that at nearly -180.

In both Panthers-Oilers regular-season meetings, plus these first four in these finals, at least seven goals have been scored. As in Game 4 on Thursday, when nine goals were scored. It was also the second straight game in which Edmonton had to pull goalie Stuart Skinner, with Cal Pickard (now 7-0 in these playoffs) very effective in relief, though Kris Knoblauch has yet to decide who's in the nets for Game 5. (Surprise if not Pickard.) The Oilers seemed to get Sergei Bobrovsky rattled in the Florida nets in game 4, and for all of his highlight-reel assists, Connor McDavid is still looking for a goal in this series. One more night for this totals pattern to continue. Play Panthers-Oilers Over

The storyline to note with the Oilers was the latest pull of goalie Stuart Skinner by Kris Knoblauch in Game 4. That's back-to-back games with Skinner yanked, and unlike Game 3, when it was too late for Cal Pickard to make a difference, he shut the gate enough on Thursday for Edmonton to rally from a 3-0 deficit to win in OT and push his playoff record to 7-0. We're assuming Pickard will be in the nets for Game 5, though Knoblauch has yet to announce. Whatever, in this series of resilience, we still like Florida's depth scoring, its ability to cause disruptions with its forecheck, and Sergei Bobrovsky's likelihood to bounce back in goal from a tough Game 4. Play Panthers on Money Line

Offense has ruled the day in the Stanley Cup through the first 3 games; 23 goals are the most we've seen during that span going all the way back to 1982. While there were seven goals scored last game it was the lowest event game of the series from an underlying metrics standpoint. Edmonton has shaken up their lines for the pivotal Game 4 and given the embarrassing effort last game, I fully expect their emphasis to be on the defensive end of the ice in an attempt to insulate Skinner cutting down on undisciplined penalties and odd man rushes. Over has been the order of the day thus far but in my opinion that changes tonight.

After another successful winning regular season, I have struggled in the Postseason, so keep that in mind. I like the Edmonton Oilers to bounce back after allowing six goals and committing stupid penalties while playing one of their worst games in recent memory. The entire team will play with a lot more urgency. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were both held without a point. If history suggests, the Oilers will likely play much better, as they are 7-2 in all Game 4s since 2022, while Florida is just 3-5 despite reaching the Finals in three straight seasons. The Panthers have won two games in overtime. Edmonton has outshot the Panthers in every game. Play Edmonton at plus money.

The Oilers might have a goaltending issue again and haven't named their starter yet -- if you aren't sure who your starting goalie is in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final is, you have a problem. And the team's best forward not named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, is not healthy. He was a game-time call for Game 3 and played but was a complete non-factor. He's a GTC again tonight. Florida can become only the fifth team in the past 40 years to win three straight games in back-to-back Finals. The Panthers can also become the sixth team in NHL history to score five or more goals in three straight games during a Stanley Cup Final.

At the moment, this doesn't feel like some of Edmonton's past series when the Oilers were slow to get going before recovering. The Game 3 meltdown in Sunrise alarmed a steady stream to the penalty box set up power play after power play for the Panthers. Last season, when the Oilers fell behind 3-0 in this finals matchup, it was because goal scoring had dried up, with just four in the first three games, before climbing back into the series by scoring 18 the next three games to force Game Seven. Repeat? Not sure. Stuart Skinner had also been holding up well in goal but he was pulled in Game 3, though he gets another chance tonight. Play Panthers on the Puck Line.

So constant has been this angle that It's hard to mistake this scoring trend in Panthers-Oilers games this season. At least seven goals have been scored in all five of the previous meetings. The Panthers, in particular, haven't slowed down in the Finals, racking up 14 goals in the first three games. Meanwhile, though Edmonton's offense has slowed the past five periods, at some point Connor McDavid can be expected to start scoring goals (he doesn't have any yet in the Finals). The bigger concern for the Oilers right now appears in goal, where Stuart Skinner might be regressing back into his Mr. Hyde routine, and pulled by Kris Knoblauch in Game 3 (Skinner gets one more chance tonight). Play Oilers-Panthers Over.

This pick is part of my SGP I gave away earlier today, and at this point it's my favorite play for Game 3. McDavid has 11 shots on goal for the series, and I expect that trend to continue.

Another pick in my SGP. McDavid has been an assist machine during the postseason, and has five already in this series. I am also playing the McDavid anytime goal scorer line, so it only makes sense to add this on.

McDavid has yet to score in this series, but I expect that to change in Game 3. The reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner has 11 shots in two games, so it's only a matter of time until he finds the back of the net.

Probably could flip a coin at this point. Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky owns a career .884 save percentage and a 3.38 goals against average through 14 games in the Stanley Cup Final. Not great numbers. But just at home, those numbers are .929 and 1.84, respectively. The Cats won three of four at home vs. the Oilers in the 2024 Final and also won on home ice in the RS matchup. Certainly doesn't hurt to have the last line change defensively against Connor McDavid and that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is iffy. But I also nearly played Edmonton +1 ... this series feels that close.

Four meetings now between these sides this season with at least seven goals scored in each, including the first two games of these finals. Florida's depth came in handy in Game 2, leveling the series in OT, after Edmonton came back to win Game One, also in OT. Indeed, OTs in the first two games of this series with regulation time ending 3-3 and 4-4, respectively. The Oilers have enough speed and skill to skate clear of the forecheck traps that the Panthers sprung upon Carolina in the East finals, while Florida's succession of productive lines means Stuart Skinner doesn't have a lot of time to rest in the Edmonton goal. We'll stick with the high-scoring pattern in Game 3. Play Oilers-Panthers Over.

Home edge? Not in these playoffs when the Oilers have been on the road, as once beyond the opening two games vs. the Kings, Edmonton has won seven of eight as a visitor. Even minus key cog Zach Hyman, the Oilers have used their speed and skill to cut thru the Florida defense and provide good chances against Sergei Bobrovsky. Note the three Oilers losses since the first two games of the Kings series have been games in which Edmonton looked like it was about to win, the only real letdown a five-or-so minute span in Game 1 of the Dallas series. We'd be surprised if Edmonton doesn't get one of these games in Sunrise. Play Oilers on the Money Line.

Florida outplayed Edmonton for much of Game 1 before falling in overtime -- just a terrific hockey game overall. Florida had been 31-0 under head coach Paul Maurice in the playoffs when leading after the first period or the second period in a game. The Panthers have lost B2B games in these playoffs just once. Sam Bennett had two goals in the loss and has an active four-game road goal streak, equaling the team record he set across the first two rounds earlier this year.