Can the Oilers take a 3-2 lead in the Final? ...

The Oilers might have a goaltending issue again and haven't named their starter yet -- if you aren't sure who your starting goalie is in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final is, you have a problem. And the team's best forward not named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, is not healthy. He was a game-time call for Game 3 and played but was a complete non-factor. He's a GTC again tonight. Florida can become only the fifth team in the past 40 years to win three straight games in back-to-back Finals. The Panthers can also become the sixth team in NHL history to score five or more goals in three straight games during a Stanley Cup Final.

Probably could flip a coin at this point. Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky owns a career .884 save percentage and a 3.38 goals against average through 14 games in the Stanley Cup Final. Not great numbers. But just at home, those numbers are .929 and 1.84, respectively. The Cats won three of four at home vs. the Oilers in the 2024 Final and also won on home ice in the RS matchup. Certainly doesn't hurt to have the last line change defensively against Connor McDavid and that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is iffy. But I also nearly played Edmonton +1 ... this series feels that close.

Florida outplayed Edmonton for much of Game 1 before falling in overtime -- just a terrific hockey game overall. Florida had been 31-0 under head coach Paul Maurice in the playoffs when leading after the first period or the second period in a game. The Panthers have lost B2B games in these playoffs just once. Sam Bennett had two goals in the loss and has an active four-game road goal streak, equaling the team record he set across the first two rounds earlier this year.

Not sure I've gotten a Panthers road game right in these playoffs, so tread carefully. But think the loss of Zach Hyman for the Oilers will really hurt against mega-physical Florida -- and it got even more pest-worthy after acquiring Brad Marchand, who wasn't around for the 2024 Final. His entire series mission will be to try and force Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl into a stupid retaliation penalty. Marchand has a history of licking guys' faces(!) to get a power play. He's the Bill Laimbeer (just vomited a little in my mouth) of the Panthers. Rooting for the Oilers in the series but have take +1 on the champs, who have won five straight road games -- all by multiple goals.

Edmonton is clearly the better team, but Dallas is playing for its season Thursday and has been much better at home in these playoffs (7-2). And the Oilers have lost top-line winger Zach Hyman for likely the rest of the postseason due to injury suffered in Game 4. That's a substantial loss as not only is Hyman a very good offensive player, he is one of the team's most physical guys. I'd expect the Stars to take advantage Thursday.

If we push, we push but all three games in the series have been decided by at least three goals -- and the Oilers have won four of their six playoff home games by at least two. Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger had a road GAA more than a goal higher during the RS and has had his issues in the postseason away as well. Stars top forward Roope Hintz is a game-time call after missing Game 3 -- when he "wasn't close" according to coach Peter DeBoer despite warming up.

Will go ahead and play this now because it will only go up if Dallas star center Roope Hintz is out. He left the Game 2 loss injured and is in major question for Sunday (having watched him leave the ice, I doubt he goes but hockey players are the toughest around so we shall see). I like Edmonton anyways, but especially so if he sits. Roope had 67 points and a plus-18 rating during the RS and has 11 in the playoffs while being one of the team's top guys in the faceoff circle: 7-for-14 in Game 2 before leaving. Yes, I enjoy saying Roope: "Roope, I am your father!"

May well push, or I suppose lose, but I worry about Stuart Skinner's confidence again. The Edmonton netminder was horrible the first two games of the playoffs and benched but then eventually forced back into action due to Calvin Pickard's injury. Skinner played great the last two of the conference semifinals and the first two periods of Game 1 in Dallas before allowing five goals in the third. So we'll go ahead and roll the dice on this great number. Dallas has won seven straight home games.

This is my absolute last time fading Florida on the road in the 2025 playoffs should the Cats bite me again. I just can't imagine with how good Carolina has been on home ice that it would lose again there. This is the season. The Panthers clearly got into the Canes' heads with some physical play in Game 1. Carolina did outshoot, outhit and outdraw (won in faceoff circle) Florida. The Hurricanes are 2-0 in games following losses this postseason, outscoring opponents 9-2 with one shutout.

Toss-up in my mind so only a half unit, but I need a reason not to play a home team -- apparently whenever one is facing Florida suffices -- and I don't have a reason not to here. The Stars have the payback motivation, the better goalie and defense. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner was fantastic the final two games of the last round but terrible in the three previous. And if he were to get hurt in mid-game, the Oilers are in big trouble with Calvin Pickard still out injured. Shoot, if I'm the Stars I'm taking runs at Skinner for that reason. Hypothetically of course. Dallas was 28-10-3 at home during the RS and has won six straight playoff games there.

I'm still pretty flabbergasted how bad Florida made the Maple Leafs look on their own ice in Game 7 on Sunday night. So impressive for the Cats but utterly depressing yet again for those of us tired of watching Toronto Game 7 meltdowns. I've had a pretty good NHL season but seems like I don't do well fading the Panthers. The only reason I will in Game 1 is that they have to turn around and play so soon after a long series. Carolina is well-rested and the only team without a home loss this postseason. Frederik Andersen leads all goalies in GAA and SV as well. This series will probably be a slugfest full of 2-1 or 3-2 games.

We take home teams in Game 7, that simple. And we are covered in the event of an overtime loss. I hope to heck this goes to OT simply as a fan ... but then naturally Maple Leafs winning. They haven't been to the conference finals since 2002 when they got there with a Game 7 home win in the semifinals to face Carolina in the ECF. And of course, the Hurricanes are there waiting this year. Toronto forward Matthew Knies (58 regular-season points, +7 rating) was in some question with an injury but will play. This might be a homer pick because I'm not much interested in a Florida-Carolina East Finals matchup.

Get asked often why I generally only play home teams (any sport). I just think guys feel comfortable with the background/rink/field, no travel, etc., and it's easier to stage a comeback at home than away. The Jets' Connor Hellebuyck is the definition of back at home/fade away in these playoffs. He pitched a second home shutout in the series Thursday but is 0-5 with a 5.84 GAA on the road. Winnipeg -- and Hellebuyck -- has lost nine straight playoff road games overall. So, yeah, the Jets are probably due and as someone who wants a Canadian team to finally win the Cup, I'd prefer they win. But I can't ignore the numbers.

We backed a desperate home team last night looking to avoid elimination -- and that didn't pan out. But Vegas certainly played with a lot more intensity, especially on the defensive end. Carolina has dominated this series for the most part and really this play is simply hoping for a possible letdown with the Canes knowing that Game 6 is back in Raleigh if needed. In the regular season, Washington was excellent after a loss -- immediately its 31 defeats, the Caps averaged 3.94 goals per game, roughly half a goal a game over their per game average of 3.49 goals per game throughout the RS. They followed their only first-round loss with a win.