Many are expecting a down game from Tyrese Haliburton in a potential Thunder blowout. While I'm expecting him to struggle to score, I bet him to grab at least five rebounds for the seventh time in his last 10 playoff games. During the regular season, OKC gave up the fourth-most rebounds to opposing point guards. The projected fast pace would mean more possessions and more opportunities for Haliburton to cash this bet.

For the Thunder to get back on track and win Game 2, they're going to need Jalen Williams to show up. He's only scored over 20 points twice in his last six games. Once he misses a couple of shots, he's reluctant to shoot. In Game 1, he was 6 of 19 shooting and only had 17 points. With the importance of Game 2 for the Thunder season, he needs to show up, and he knows it. He averaged 21.6 points in the regular season and 20.2 in the playoffs. Batman needs his Robin. I'm betting Williams over because he'll have plenty of opportunities to get over 22 points.

The Thunder are not a great rebounding team. During the regular season, they ranked 20th in the league in rebounds allowed per game. In the playoffs, they have allowed the most rebounds per game. In two games against them during the regular season, Pascal Siakam had 10 and nine rebounds. In Game 1, he finished with 10 rebounds as the Thunder turned to more small lineups. There should even be times in this game when Siakam is playing center for the Pacers. I’ll pay the juice and take this over.

Chet Holmgren had an off game in game one with just six points and six rebounds. That was his lowest output for points in the postseason, and the fewest he has scored since March 31st. Part of that had to do with his minutes, and not getting a chance to get in the game flow. He had just eleven second half minutes, including a quick hook in the fourth quarter. It is evident OKC needs one big on the floor, and I expect Holmgren to thrive with ample opportunities in game two. Play his over.

Still advantage OKC, eh? Not sure, pundits, as if there's one thing the Thunder don't want is for Indiana to be within touching distance in the 4th Q, considering the many breathless Pacers rallies this postseason, none greater than their fightback in Game One. For proponents of the zig-zag, which has worked pretty well this postseason, and indeed worked for OKC in Game 2 of the Denver series after losing the opener, we offer that Indiana is 3-0 in Game 2s thus far in these playoffs, including unexpected wins at Cleveland and New York the last two rounds after winning Game One. A related play on Indy to win this series, prices around +240 at various outlets, might be worth a look, too. Play Pacers

The Pacers won 111-110 in Game 1, which makes it six consecutive games the Pacers have scored 111 or more against Oklahoma City. So why is the total dropping to 108.5? The thinking here is that the Thunder are going to come back to life and show the dominance they have throughout the season, but I've seen the Pacers win four out of the last six meetings, and the Thunder are somewhat rattled. They got punched in the gut. The Thunder are going to score plenty, and the Pacers are going to score more than 109.

Caesar’s. Alex Caruso is coming off an 11-point outing in Game 1, playing 28 minutes off the bench. Caruso’s minutes floor seems to be secure, as he’s played at least 22 minutes in eleven of the last twelve playoff games (with the outlier coming in a 42-point loss to the Timberwolves). And there’s even more upside for Caruso’s playing time in this series, as the Thunder seem inclined to run more small lineups. When he sees just 18 minutes of playing time, Caruso has cleared this line in 21 of his last 30 games, including 11 of 14 in the playoffs. The up and down nature of this series suits him too - as he thrives in transition and on spot up shooting.

A sloppy first half by the Pacers, who were guilty of a ghastly 19 TOs in the first 24 minutes, helped keep the score down in Game 1. Indy, however, finally found a groove in the second half when cutting down its TOs (just five) and scoring 66 points. As usual, it was a collective Indiana effort, capped by another Tyrese Haliburton game winner. though note how the Pacers were able to make OKC play defense sideline-to-sideline in the second half, and not just trying to ram the ball down the middle as the T-wolves did in the last round. Trendlines have still mostly been over for these teams in the playoffs and expect that to resurface again in Sunday's Game 2. Play Pacers-Thunder Over

The Thunder slowed down and tried to bleed the clock in the final 5 minutes of Game 1. That won't happen again. They average 122/G in the playoffs at home. This is desperation time which means 48 minutes of high-pace hoops. OKC went 3/17 in the paint (non restricted) in Game 1 after a long layoff. They average 19 PIP in the playoffs. Also show just 29% from catch and shoot spots in Game 1 for 21 points; they average 34/G in C&S spots. Positive regression to the mean is coming here and a return to their normal lineup with real size will help with offensive rebounding and more second-chance shots.

You pay a premium for playing the first half for good reason. OKC has won the first half by 8 points or more in 9 of 10 home playoff games. The Thunder have a ridiculous 30.5 net rating int he first half at home in postseason (nearly twice as good as any other team). They are +15.2 in first half at home in the playoffs and the Pacers are slow starters, -2.3 on road. Maybe OKC blows another big lead but with their season on the line I project them to win the first half by 12 or more. We keep riding this bet.

The Pacers pulled out a win in Game 1 in the last second after trailing the whole game. That's the third consecutive series the Pacers won on the road in Game 1. Why can't they do it again in Game 2? What I'm betting first is the total over because they owe me one from Game 1 that should have gone over. The Pacers only scored 20 points in the first quarter and 45 for the first half as they turned the ball over 20 times. And somehow they found a way to win by scoring 66 points in the second half and turning the ball over only four times. Just six turnovers from the Thunder, but they shot poorly at 40%. Over.

We’re going to fade Obi Toppin who was one of the heroes of Game 1. Toppin just isn’t getting the minutes to justify this line, in addition to an angry Thunder defense in a game with significant blowout potential.

I am giving Chet Holmgren a chance to make up for his Game 1 dud. The key to OKC rebounding from the tough Game 1 loss is literally rebounding. Isaiah Hartenstein is not playing as much so the team really needs Chet to step up and be the double digit rebounder he was vs Denver. Like in Game 1 of the Denver series, Chet only had 6 boards in Game 1, but responded with double digits in 5 of the other 6 games. I see him responding very similarly in Game 2 on Sunday.

We painfully missed on the IND Under 110.5 TT in Game 1. Despite the IND win, they still only shot 49% on twos and turned the ball over at a ridiculous pace, especially in the first half. Assuming the rebounding evens out and maybe some negative regression from the 3pt line (Obi Toppin went 5 for 8) the Pacers should do their "fair share" to help this game come under. I also have been waiting for the OKC 3 ball to start falling but it looks like I may have to wait a lot longer, especially with the role players not shooting well from three. The moment may be too big for the non-Alex Carusos of the world.

Maybe if I hadn't seen the Denver series, I would have lost some faith in OKC, but Game 1 had sooo much in common with Game 1 vs Denver. OKC responded with a resounding Game 2 win over the Nuggets thanks to taking care of boards while maintaining a big turnover differential. Tyrese Halliburton is mythologically clutch but the Pacers shouldn't have been within 10 late and even had a chance of winning the game had OKC done the bare minimum on the boards. We also should see positive regression to the mean in OKC 2pt shooting after their 41% in Game 1.