Andrew Nembhard averaged 19.5 points in two regular-season meetings with OKC, as the Thunder successfully limited Tyrese Haliburton. Nembhard also has had three strong Game 1s in this postseason, scoring 17, 23 and 15 points. Dating to last season, Nembhard has excelled on the road in the playoffs. Many books have moved to 11.5; I would play it for a half-unit there.

I've been watching this Tyrese Haliburton total points scored prop from the beginning of the week, and was looking at 18, and now I've seen 16.5. The public likes the under. The problem with Haliburton is that even though he averaged 18.6 points per game in the regular season, he only averaged 11 points in losses to Oklahoma City, where he shot 44% from the field and assisted the ball considerably less than in the rest of his games. He knows this too, which is why in Game 1 of the finals, I expect him to be a big part of the offense. He's averaged 19.8 points during the playoffs and has gotten over 20 points in three of his last four games. Over.

This spread is a little too high. I love OKC in the series but the first game of the NBA Finals should feature some jitters. This game stays within the number. The Pacers have been outstanding on the road this entire playoffs. OKC wins, but Indiana covers.

Oklahoma City’s stout defense has limited opponents at home in the postseason to an average of 99 points. They have done an excellent job at hindering teams top scoring options, which for the Pacers are Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. They will leave secondary scorers open, and I expect Nembhard to take advantage in an increase in shot attempts. In both games this year against OKC he filled out the stat sheet in every category, and finished with 23 and 16 points. Play his over in game one.

The Thunder have dominated at home throughout the playoffs. However, there could be a rust factor here, considering that they haven’t played in a week. Also, the Pacers are 6-2 on the road in the playoffs. The Thunder thrive off creating turnovers, but the Pacers averaged the fourth-fewest turnovers per game during the regular season. While I think the Thunder win Game 1, I think the Pacers keep things close enough to cover.

I say all of this as a Pacers fan: you can't beat OKC at their own game. We loved the Pacers to beat the Knicks because of their depth and their ability to win on the road, but no one is deeper than OKC. Their turnover margin and 2-point differential is at home is enough to outweigh Indiana. This Pacers front court will struggle against OKC on the boards, considering they did so against the Knicks.

Didn't expect a Jarace Walker injury to prod me to play an NBA Finals prop, but here we are. Walker is a reserve Pacers forward who has averaged about 16 minutes per game in these playoffs. He will miss at least the first two of the Finals due to injury. Most of those minutes in theory should go to fellow reserve Obi "Wan" Toppin. He's averaging 3.3 boards in the playoffs and was at 4.7 in the conference finals. If this is a blowout, Toppin also probably sees an uptick in minutes. As it is, the Pacers will need more size against the OKC twin 7-footers. If Toppin sees at least 20 minutes, I think this easily cashes.

This is a Chet Holmgren series, and I am willing to buy in on Game 1. For starters, when Chet played 30+ minutes last series, he was 3-0 to this over. I don't think OKC will take any chances, no matter what the lead is, against this Pacers team notorious for coming back late. The Pacers large weakness vs the Knicks was rebounding, and I anticipate the same struggles against this OKC team. Look for Chet to record double digit rebounds on his way to covering this PRA.

As regular-season meetings hit 234 and 243, respectively, we can see why we're seeing a 230+ total for Game One. Both, especially OKC, can play disruptive defense, but the sort that also leads to scores with points off turnovers often highlighting each side. Indiana also needs to find a way to slow SGA, who scored 33 and 45, respectively, in the reg season. matchups. Though the Pacers' passing game should do a much better job with ball movement than did Minnesota, after the Thunder defense more easily slowed the T-wolves in the last round when Minnesota was slow, if not deficient, at the sort of ball reversal that would make OKC play defense sideline-to-sideline. Plenty of ammo to push this past 230! Play Pacers-Thunder Over

Is this "Mission Impossible" for the Pacers? Maybe not as much as some think, even though Indy lost both to OKC in the regular season, and the Thunder lost just once to East teams all season. OKC also has yet to cover a playoff spread on the road (but we'll get to that in Game 3). Game One keys? Andrew Nembhard will need to make plays when the ball is out of Tyrese Halburton's hands. Indy needs to keep turnovers low, and make the Thunder play defense sideline-to-sideline defense after OKC was able to load up in the paint vs. Minnesota, which had no ball reversal. Enough to stay within 10? Remember, the Pacers are also 6-2 SU on the road this postseason! Play Pacers

Game 1 isn’t until Thursday, but I’m not waiting on this. The odds have been getting worse and the line has even moved to 7.5 in some places, so the time to act is now. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.9 assists per game in the playoffs. He has recorded at least seven assists in eight of his last 12 playoff games. During the regular season, he had eight assists in both meetings with the Pacers. With how often he has the ball in his hands and how fast these two teams play, I’ll take this over.

The Thunder beat the Pacers in both meetings this season, and both games went over, one with the total of 234.5 and the other with 227.5. The total on this game for the Pacers is 110.5, a number that went over in both games they played. The Pacers are going to do some things with their offensive schemes that's going to give OKC some trouble. I expect the Pacers to play their desired game plan and run it successfully for most of the game, staying within the 9.5 point spread in this game and getting over 111. It's got to be a Tyrese Haliburton game.

This is a big combo line for Alex Caruso, even in the event that Caruso sees a bump in playing time. Speaking of which, OKC opted to reduce Isaiah Hartensteins playing time with Caruso being the primary beneficiary in the final two games of the WCF. Even if the Thunder opt to go small, it’s still a tall order considering Caruso has been held under this line in 11/16 postseason games, including seven consecutive outings.

Long layoffs didn't cause problems for the Thunder before when it came to fast starts - led by 10 at the half of game 1 vs DEN and led by 32 at half of Game 1 vs MEM. They have a ridiculous +31.7 net rating at home in first half of playoff games, playing at fastest pace in playoffs with the best D rating as well. An AST/TO ratio just under 3 with a 60.1 TS%. Another level than what the Pacers have seen in the East. OKC is +15.6 in first half at home and IND have been slower starters on the road at -1.1 in first half. The Pacers have made second-half runs but this should be a shock to their system.

We're projecting Chet Holmgren for 17 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2 assists, which is a slight lean in all three lines. While he's only 8-18 over this line this season, it's 100% attributable to the number of blowouts OKC played at home. He finished the Minnesota series going 3-2 to the over, playing 30+ minutes in the the three wins. Given Indiana's historically amazing and mathematically impossible number of comebacks in the playoffs this season, we doubt OKC will take their foot of the gas, even up 20 in the early 4th quarter unless Indiana sits their starters. Chet should be able to get double digit boards vs. the poor rebounding Pacers, shoot over top shorter defenders, or take their taller defenders off the dribble.

The Thunder won by 16 points per game at home this season, so we would argue that picking them to win by 15 is actually a sign of respect to the Pacers. We are getting a single digit spread because of how great Indiana has been on the road in the playoffs but that trend may have ended in Game 5 vs New York. The model has OKC covering in 67% of simulations because of a +5 percentage point differential in 2pt shooting, a +7 rebounding advantage, and a +5 turnover advantage. The Thunder were +6% on twos at home this season while Indiana was just +1% on the road, so the +5% projected edge fits with the overall trends.

The Pacers played at Oklahoma City on March 29th at a total of 234, and the game went over with the Thunder winning 132-111, where they beat the Pacers by 10 in the second and third quarters to take control of the game. That's a total of 243 in the game, over. Thursday's total is set at 230.5, which is a sharp turn from what we've been seeing in the playoffs that cuts off a large percentage of the regular season totals. This total makes sense. Both games they played during the regular season went over the total. Really, 230.5 isn't that much. Let's get over.

I expect much of this series to be played in the 230s. The Pacers are not going to score enough in a half court to win these games and they have to run. OKC loves to run. OKC has been far mor proficient offensively at home in playoffs, with a 121.8 offensive rating, averaging 123.3/G. Pacers offense far more efficient on the road in playoffs, averaging 116.4/G. Defensive adjustments will be made as series progresses. Thunder are over in 5 of last 7. Pacers are over in 10 of last 14 on the road. IND have some defensive warts.