Unlike vs. the depth-shy Lakers or depleted Warriors, the T-wolves won't have the same manpower edge against the Thunder. Still, there was very little to choose between these sides in the regular season, splitting all four of their meetings, and there are good defensive matchups on each of the featured scorers (Jaden McDaniels on SGA< Lu Dort on Anthony Edwards). If Minnesota might have an edge, it could be from frontliner Julius Randle, scoring at better than 23 pg in the playoffs, while OKC's three-point shooting (only 31% in the postseason) has been inconsistent. This one looks close In Game One. Play T-wolves.

This wasn't a slow-paced series during the regular season, though it's worth wondering if the Thunder could cause a fundamental problem for the T-wolves. Mainly because Minnesota has been prone to sloppiness in this postseason, despite advancing handily past the Lakers and Warriors. That's a concern vs. OKC, which has been adept at converting turnovers into baskets, as Denver found out painfully on Sunday. As it was in the first meeting this season when Minnesota was guilty of 23 turnovers in a 113-105 loss back on New Year's Eve. But in the subsequent three meetings, the Wolves averaged only 11 TOs pg, not necessarily finding it a problem. Note all four regular-season meetings exceeded this 216.5 tonight in Game One. Play Wolves-Thunder Over.

The model projects him for 4 rebounds and 30+ minutes which is in line with his regular season averages of 4.1 in 29. We are getting a buy low line because he comes in 5-3 under largely due to his reduced minutes in much of the Nuggets series. He played well under 25 in 3 games and under 30 in 5 of them (17, 21, 28, 19 and 27). The Nuggets struggled shooting from three, which is why Dort was not playing major minutes. Dort's defense on Anthony Edwards is critical. Dort averages 3.8 rebounds, usually plays over 30 minutes, and has 3+ REB in all 8 of his matchups vs Minnesota the last two seasons. This season Dort is 56-27, 67.5% over 2.5 rebounds.

One of the biggest differences between Knicks Isaiah Hartenstein and Thunder Isaiah Hartenstein was his assists production. He increased his minutes by 10% on the Thunder but his assist production skyrocketed by over 50%. He averaged nearly 4 assists per game this season. We are getting a nice buy low value because he only had 1 assist in his last 2 games and 3 in his last 3 games. For the season the over is 48-21, 69.6%. I'll take the season trend that was hitting over 70% before the last 3 games.

The Thunder are an excellent defensive team that has a ton of options to throw at Anthony Edwards. I expect Edwards to see a heavy dose of Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso, who are two of the best defensive players in the league. Edwards played the Thunder four times during the regular season and scored 20, 23, 29 and 17 points in those games. He has scored 25 or fewer points in 6 of 10 playoff games already, so I don’t expect him to go off in the scoring column in this difficult matchup.

Naz Reid went for 19 points, eight rebounds and one assist in the one regular-season meeting in which Minnesota and OKC were both at full strength. He's shooting 46.7 percent from deep in the playoffs. With the Thunder's elite interior defense, the Timberwolves would be wise to lean on Reid and his sweet outside shot. Reid went off in the opening games vs. the Lakers and Warriors, and I like him to make a big impact at OKC on Tuesday.

Rudy Gobert has really struggled throughout the postseason and has largely been ineffective. Aside from a single game in each series, Gobert is averaging just 5.5 PPG and has been off the floor during crunch time and in the 4th quarter. Now Gobert is facing an elite OKC defense that should give him fits. I expect Minnesota to play Naz Reid more in this series which will come at Goberts expense.

Prior to this season, Julius Randle had really struggled in his previous postseason appearances. Fast forward to this year and not only is Randle playing well but he’s significantly elevated his play and is averaging nearly 5 additional PPG from the regular season. Randle has eclipsed this in four consecutive games and averaged 39 PRA against Golden State. The 3x All-Star had a pair of double digit assist games and is routinely stuffing the staff sheet and contributing in a myriad of ways. Look for Anthony Edwards to continue to command a lot of attention and Randle has taken advantage.

The key to OKC's dominant Game 7 win over Denver was turnovers, where they forced 75 while committing just 41 across their four home games. That +34 margin was pivotal and is expected to carry over against a Minnesota team that has been careless with the ball, even in wins. The Timberwolves turned it over 20, 19, and 18 times in their last three games against Golden State. The SportsLine Model projects OKC to be +7 in turnover margin alone, which nearly justifies the spread by itself. Add in a +5.5% edge in 2-point shooting—thanks to the slashing of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, plus the interior presence of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein—and this projects as a comfortable double-digit win for the Thunder.

Chet Holmgren scored 13 points in just 28 minutes in Game 7, despite missing three wide-open threes. The blowout nature of that game limited his minutes, but assuming a more competitive Game 1, he should see 30+ minutes. That's the sweet spot: Holmgren is 12-1 to the over when playing at least 30 minutes this season. With Minnesota's interior defense stretched thin by OKC's spacing and slashing, Holmgren should find plenty of clean looks and opportunities to cash this over.

Caesar’s / DraftKings. Anthony Edwards will be in the unenviable position of facing the Thunder’s perimeter defense in the Western Conference Finals. The combination of Luke Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace flummoxed lead ball-handlers all season, and Edwards struggled in their head-to-head matchups. Ant Man was under this line in three of four games against the Thunder this season - with the one over coming in a game without both Julius Randle and Donte DiVencenzo. And it’s not as if Edwards has seen much of a playoff bump: he’s under this line in 4/10 playoff games,l

Caesar’s. Jalen Williams has cleared this assists line in nine of eleven playoff games this postseason. He’s also notched at least five assists in 31 of 45 overall games with at least 30 minutes played, and in all four games against the Timberwolves. His playmaking has spiked, with 10.9 potential assists per game this season (9.4 in the regular season - averaging 5.1 assists per game), and he leads the Thunder in passes made.

Maybe the Wolves won't be so sharp with so much time off, but the Thunder will be spent coming right off a 7-game series. OKC's shooting has been spotty in the playoffs and SGA's game as been off. I love the Wolves on the road in the playoffs. They are legit defensively and this is a lot of points to catch. The Wolves may be able to win the battle of the boards and with top 2 defensive rating teams in playoffs, I want the points. MIN is a +7.1 in playoffs and have covered 7 of their last 9. OKC is 2-7 ATS in its last 9. The Wolves are very live for me to win game and I am sprinkling on ML.