Nikola Jokic leads all conference semifinal players with 14.7 rebounds per game. OKC cannot keep him off the glass, and given that Jokic will likely play even more minutes in Game 7, the over is definitely the play here.

FanDuel. Chet Holmgren comes into this game having cleared this line in four of six games this series, and six of ten overall against the Nuggets this season. He’s slightly edged out Isaiah Hartenstein in rebound chances this series (17.5 per game compared to 17.4), but Hartenstein has had a tougher time converting those chances, as he’s contending with Nikola Jokic. Counting on more of a defensive struggle in this one, with a lot of missed shots. I also like Holmgren not having to defend Aaron Gordon, which should allow him to more freely crash the boards.

Nikola Jokic played over 46 minutes in Denver's Game 7 loss to Minnesota last season. He likely goes well into the 40s again on Sunday, and given that Aaron Gordon is either out or severely diminished, Jokic will have to carry an even bigger load. No way OKC keeps him under 30.

SGA has gone over this assist total in all three of OKC's home games in the series, and he's averaging 7.0 assists per game overall.

With Aaron Gordon limited for today’s game seven, it puts a bigger burden on the star talent of Denver with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to step up. Jokic has been very aggressive in this series with his shot attempts, averaging 22 a game. That likely will be raised with Gordons limitations. He is also shooting his best in the postseason currently with back to back games of 64 percent or higher. Take Jokic’s over.

Even if Aaron Gordon plays you have to imagine he won't be particularly effective with a hamstring that needs a few weeks to heal. Nikola Jokic was already a safe bet to play 40 minutes but maybe he will have to go basically the entire game, maybe resting a minute or two at the end of the first and 3rd quarters to maximize real-time rest. The model's projection of 54.6 PTS+REB+AST is probably conservative because without Gordon, we could see Jokic going well over the 22 FGAs we have projected and, depending on how much they let him get away with throwing his weight around, perhaps well over the 7 FTAs we are projecting.

The big news heading into Game 7 is that Aaron Gordon is playing through a hamstring injury. He is one of Jokic’s best lob threats. With Gordon probably limited, that likely means that Jokic will need to score more himself if the Nuggets are going to win. Jokic hasn’t had more than eight assists in a game in this series and he had six or fewer assists in five of the games. I’ll take the under here.

Lots of OKC backers thought this series would be over by now, but Denver has had different ideas. Getting contributions from more than just Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets have forced a Game Seven. Though news that Aaron Gordon will be a game-time decision with his hamstring is a concern, even though it might surprise if he didn't feature. Still, if he's compromised at all, given the role he's already played in the playoffs, it;'s a potential negative for Denver. OKC has not really gotten in gear since Game 2, but at the outset we suspected that the Thunder's balance and depth would prove the difference in this series, and we're still thinking that makes the difference in Game Seven. Play Thunder

As the oddsmakers have adjusted the total to a series-low 213.5, we're compelled to give over another look. The Nuggets have been getting some extra contributions from unexpected sources, like Julian Strawther's 15 points off the bench on Thursday, and of course there's still Jokic and Murray, while five of the six scorelines in this series would have cleared 213.5 (though Game Three did require OT). We get the feeling that OKC has been performing a bit under capacity since Game Two, but the Thunder still has balance and documented explosiveness, and note the three games at Paycom Center have landed above 213.5. Expect this scoreline to come close to the near 248 pg we saw in the last three reg-season meetings. Play Nuggets-Thunder Over

The Nuggets have played two competitive games in Oklahoma City in this series. In those games, Nikola Jokic grabbed 22 and 15 rebounds. I believe Denver will not get blown out in Game 7, even with Aaron Gordon (hamstring) ailing. That should keep Jokic on the floor for about 44 minutes. Gordon potentially being limited means an even bigger rebounding burden will fall on Jokic. So I bet Jokic to grab at least 14 rebounds. Many books are moving to 14.5, the Over priced at plus money. I'd play that for a half-unit.

The Nuggets are 3-3 in the seven-game series with the Thunder, but have covered five of the six games, and if we look at the regular season as well, that extends to covering seven of their last nine meetings. The one anomaly has been the Thunder’s Game 2 blowout, 149-106. The Thunder came with a decent shooting game in Game 6 at 47%, but it was the same for the Nuggets. The Nuggets had more turnovers in the game and still won, 119-107. For whatever reason, the Nuggets play the Thunder extremely close. I don't know why Game 7 will be any different from the whole season of work. Nuggets to cover.

This number suggests a bump in usage and that Aaron Gordon is doubtful to suit up for Game 7. Christian Braun has played great basketball but this is a tough spot for the former Kansas Jayhawk. Even if Aaron Gordon doesn’t suit up there is some significant blowout potential and Braun is facing the leagues best defense on the road in a hostile environment.

This was our top player prop in Game 2 when he finished with 15. Oddsmakers will set lines in most sports factoring for home court advantage but outside of Game 2 we all see how competitive this series has been. For the season, Chet Holmgren averages 3 fewer points at home (13.8) vs 16.8 on the road (14-6, 70% over) but that has everything to do with not having to play major minutes because OKC blew out so many opponents at home. Chet averaged over 30 min on the road vs just 26 at home and is averaging over 31 in this series. When he plays over 30 minutes the over is 12-1 this season and the SportsLine model is projecting him for 32 minutes.

We're paying a slight premium in the first half at 4.5 instead of 3.5, but I still prefer this wager. OKC remains an elite first half team and Denver's slow starts have continued through the postseason. OKC is a +8.8 in the first half in this series, with a ridiculous +17.8 net rating. OKC has the second-best 1st half offensive rating in the second round (BOS) and second best D rating (BOS). These teams playing these halves at a 103.3 pace that greatly suits the deeper and fresher Thunder. DEN starters logged a heavy playoff load and one extra day of rest, finally, probably not enough. OKC may blow more leads, but I project them to build yet another double-digit first half margin.