Thunder don't lose two in a row very often. I don't see it here. When they get whacked they bounce back. This series is going to be played at their pace from here on out and they are deeper and better equipped to win higher-scoring games. Three ball will fall and their defensive intensity will increase. They don't cover on road so not going that route but they know how to grab a stranglehold of an opponent when need be.

The Thunder had a predictable letdown in Game 3 following their two blowout wins to start the series on their home floor. A second straight OKC no-show would breathe life back into Minnesota's self-belief system, so look for the Thunder to come out refocused and reassert control of the series with a Game 4 victory.

Prior to game three’s loss to Minnesota, SGA had scored 30 or more points in nine out of his last eleven playoff games. The other two occurrences he went under were games three and four on the road against Denver. Look for the same scenario as Minnesota forces other Thunder players to beat them versus SGA, who scores in the 20’s but falls short of his points prop.

Save for Game One, when the T-wolves offense stalled in the second half, has this series slowed down. The pattern continued in Minnesota's 143-101 romp on Saturday in Game 3, when it was the Wolves' bench, with four double-digit-scorers, outshining its more ballyhooed OKC counterparts. In the seven meetings between these sides this season, only that Game 1 failed to reach 218 points, with scorelines often landing much higher. Minnesota is capable of the sort of scoring balance it displayed on Saturday, when Ant Edwards also stirred with 30 points. The pace of these meetings has been brisk since the regular season, and it hasn't been changing in the playoffs. Play Thunder-Wolves Over

While the Thunder have been consistently thumping foes at the Paycom Center, including the T-wolves in the first two games of this series, on the road in the playoffs it's been a different story. Six games, six spread losses, including that 143-101 Minnesota romp on Saturday. Even in the first round vs. outmanned Memphis, OKC had to scramble just to survive, never mind covering a spread. Minnesota, temporarily at least, rectified some things in Games in Game 3, especially Julius Randle (24 points) involved from the get-go to aid Ant Edwards (30 points), plus four double-digit scorers off of the bench. These teams have now split six meetings this season; on their night, the T-wolves can not only play with, but beat, OKC. Play T-wolves

Bet365 @ -115. Coming off an unexpected blowout in which all of the Thunder starters saw reduced minutes, I’m expecting the team to bounce-back. One of whom is Jalen Williams - despite a 6 rebound plus assist performance in Game 3, he’s still cleared this line in ten of fourteen playoff games.

When was the last time the Thunder lost two games in a row? Go all the way back to the beginning of April when they lost consecutive games to the Rockets and Lakers. The only other time they lost two consecutive games this season was in November. The Thunder looked like the vastly superior team in this series before getting absolutely trounced in Game 3. Don’t expect the Timberwolves to make 20 three-pointers and shoot 57.3% from the field again like they did in Game 3. I like the Thunder to bounce back in Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander only played 28 minutes with the Thunder getting blown out in Game 3. Still, he finished with six assists. He had nine assists in Game 1 and eight assists in Game 2. During the regular season, he had at least eight assists in three of four games against the Timberwolves. Expect the Thunder to put up a better fight in Game 4 and keep things close, which should put Gilgeous-Alexander in a favorable spot to hit this over.

Anthony Edwards was brilliant in the Timberwolves Game 3 trouncing of the Western Conference finals. While Ant is truly among the elite scorers in the league, he’s going to have his work cut out against a motivated and elite Thunder squad capable of deploying multiple quality defenders. Furthermore, there is no better team at limiting their opponents top scoring option. For AE to eclipse this line he’s either going to have to shoot lights out which is not an easy task or get there through volume.

This line is set below Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's projection (1.7) and his season average (2.0), and our general rule is to take plus money in these situations. While we agree with oddsmakers that OKC is unlikely to shoot well from deep overall, we still price the over at -115. SGA has hit this mark in just 3 of his last 9 games, but two of those overs came in his last two road games. On the season, the over is 55-36 (60.4%), which supports the value here. In playoff games where he didn't attempt 10+ free throws, he's taken 48 threes across 8 games—an encouraging volume. With a projected 33% shooting rate from deep and 6+ attempts, he has a solid chance to clear this line.

Our model projects a total of 215 points for this game, giving the under a 57% probability of hitting. We also liked the under in Game 3, and the Thunder did their part by continuing their trend of poor three-point shooting on the road—under 30% in most playoff road games, with a few late-game makes pushing them to 32% in Game 3. Oklahoma City averages five fewer points on the road compared to home games, and that trend is unlikely to reverse in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Minnesota shot an unsustainably high percentage in Game 3—62% on twos and 50% on threes—while dominating the boards. However, OKC has shown the ability to adjust defensively, particularly in rebounding, as they did after a rough outing against Denver.

The Thunder's Game 3 loss was largely decided in the first quarter, where they were thoroughly outplayed and never managed to impose their season long strengths—creating turnovers and defending the three-point line. This early deficit set the tone for the rest of the game. The -120 price on the first quarter money line aligns well with our model's full-game win probability. This bet offers better value than the full-game money line at -155 on DraftKings. Historically, the Thunder have responded well after poor performances. After a loss in Game 3 at Denver, they came out with suffocating defense in Game 4, holding Denver to just 8 points in the first quarter. That kind of bounce-back potential is key here.

MIN is far more efficient offensively at home, with a 121.3 O rating in the playoffs, scoring 118/G. They won't go for 143, but OKC will get more than 101. OKC averaged 118/G on the road in regular season and they will shoot better from range in Game 4 than Game 3. The Wolves are over in 5 of last 7 overall and 14 of last 18 at home. OKC is over in 6 of 10 on road and 4 of last 5 overall. Three games in the series are over this total. Teams are over in 5 of 7 meetings since 12/31/24. The Wolves know they can't win this series in halfcourt; have to run. OKC loves that too.