The Thunder are now 0-8 on the road ATS. Last game, the Pacers outscored the Thunder 32-18 in 4th quarter after trailing by 5. Also, the Pacers outscored the Thunder 49-18 in bench points. This is NOT happening again! The Thunder step up and answer this challenge.

The Thunder are in the same situation as they were in the Denver series, where they lost Game 1 at home and Game 3 on the road and responded with the Game 4 win. They only went 2-5 against the spread in the series but went on to win Game 7, and I think it's going to be something like that here as well as the Thunder play Game 4 at Indiana. The Thunder fizzled out in the 4th quarter, scoring only 18 points. It was trending over all game until late when OKC couldn't make a shot. They shot 47% for the game and 45% from three, and still lost thanks to 17 turnovers. The Pacers aren't going to slow down. Just the over.

The Thunder aren’t the same team on the road. We saw that when they allowed 116 points in a loss to the Pacers in Indiana in Game 3. The Thunder are 4-4 on the road in the playoffs and none of their four wins came by more than six points. They have allowed 100.6 points per game at home in the playoffs, but they have allowed an average of 115.9 points per game on the road. If the Pacers are going to pull off the upset and win the title, they must win Game 4 at home. They know that. I expect them to keep this close enough to cover, even if they don’t win.

T.J. McConnell provided a huge spark off the bench for the Pacers in Game 3, posting 10 points, five assists and one rebound over 15 minutes. He hasn’t played more than 18 minutes in any of the three games in this series, but he still has finished with at least 14 combined points, rebounds and assists in each game. During the regular season, he averaged 9.1 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists over just 18 minutes per game. In the playoffs, he has averaged 8.6 points, 2.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists over 16 minutes per game. Even in limited minutes, I like his chances of hitting this over at home.

Are the oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to the venerable NBA playoff zig-zag? OKC has won all five after its postseason losses, but it has covered only three of those. Maybe more importantly, the Thunder hasn't covered at all in eight playoff games on the road this spring. Meanwhile, wagering markets have also been underrating the Pacers too much all postseason, neglecting to note Indiana's second-best NBA record since New Year's. (Those losses in October, November, and December aren't too meaningful in June.) Various scorers have stepped forward for Rick Carlisle's Indy all throughout the playoffs, and note how the Pacers slowed SGA ("only" 24 points) in Game 3. All are worrying developments for the Thunder. Play Pacers.

Timely aggressiveness was exhibited quietly by Andrew Nembhard in game three offensively. He took his fewest postseason shot attempts with just five overall, but took a majority of those in the fourth with Oklahoma City worn down. After Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Bennedict Mathurin all scored over twenty points in game three, look for the Thunder to adjust their defense. I expect a natural increase in shot attempts from Nembhard, as he clears his game four points prop.

The Pacers have proven they can play with these guys and especially at home. IND is a bear at home in the first half - their 120.9 offensive rating at home in the playoffs in that half is identical to OKC's. OKC has just a -9.2 net rating on road in first half with major defensive issues allowing 60/half. IND is a +16.1 at home in that spot! IND +8.1 in first half at home in the playoffs and OKC -4.8 on the road. Expect another faster start from Indiana. I took this up to +5.5 in alt markets to make it two possessions in 24 mins to beat me. IND ML in the first half probably worth a sprinkle.

Jalen Williams is coming off his best finals game and as a result we’re seeing a hefty combo line. Williams has struggled with consistency and this has proven to be a tall order for the talented combo forward. Williams has been held under this line in 12/19 postseason games. I’d play this down to 32.5 for a full unit.

The model projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 'just' 44 PRA. This season he averages 42.5 on the road and the over was just 10-34, 22.7% on the road. Even when he started the Finals with record breaking scoring production for a player in his first two Finals games he still came in under 47.5 PRA. The narrative that he gets too many friendly foul calls seems to be impacting his ability to get to the line. In 3 of his last 4 games he has just 6, 8 and 4 free throw attempts. His FTAs and FT% are noticeably down in the playoffs and his 3-point percentage is down from over 37% in the regular season to under 32% in the playoffs.

The Thunder are favored more in Game 4 despite losing Game 3 because the expectation is Indiana's Ben Mathurin will not come close to having another game like the 27 pts in 22 min he had in Game 3. While he may put up half as many points in Game 4, do not expect Mathurin to shrivel away. More importantly, the trio of Mathurin, T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin can actually provide Indiana with better bench production than OKC, especially at home. The massive turnover advantage that OKC has virtually vs every other team has not materialized since the first half of this series. In our model OKC is committing more turnovers than Indiana, which is why the Pacers are the side to cover.

Both teams had the fast start I expected in Game 3. But OKC only took 79 shots and just 22 attempted threes. The pace slowed in the second half. I don't anticipate that again. The Pacers will be looking to run, OKC will adjust to being back on the road and wont give away 20 possessions with turnovers. Scoring soared for Game 2 after both teams got a taste of OKC crowd and I project it again for the second game in IND. OKC not nearly as sharp defensively on the road and know they'll likely need at least 120 points in Game 4.