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Prop Bet Guy

Doug

PropBetGuy burst into the public consciousness in 2020 and quickly developed a massive following. Actively posting and recapping all of his bets on Twitter/X, making regular appearances on VSIN and ESPN Radio, PropBetGuy became synonymous nationwide with sharp, transparent and profitable prop betting. A former daily contributor at Action Network, he bets almost exclusively on player props in the NFL, NBA, MLB, CBB and CFB. Since the inception of his social media presence, PropBetGuy has recorded a profit of over 260 betting units, at a 6.5% ROI. Almost all of his bets are 1-unit plays, with rare 1.5-unit plays. PropBetGuy joined SportsLine in December 2024 sporting a 57 percent record on NFL player props (+112 units at an 8% ROI) and a 58 percent mark on college basketball player props (+48u, 9% ROI). Over that same span, PBG netted 60 units on NBA player props and 40 units on MLB player props. Now you will find most of PropBetGuy's plays, including his top bets, only on SportsLine. For PropBetGuy media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@PropBetGuy
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
+433
RECORD: 27-19-0
# 5 MLB EXPERT
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks

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Prop's Past Picks

Jun 11 2025, 1:40 am UTC
League
L.A. Dodgers
1
@ San Diego
11
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Caesar’s. Dylan Cease has remained under this line in eight of thirteen starts this season. He’ll face off against a patient Dodgers lineup whom Cease has not much success against historically.

Pick Made: Tue 10:41 pm UTC on Caesars
Jun 10 2025, 1:40 am UTC
League
Seattle
4
@ Arizona
8
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

DraftKings. Merrill Kelly has cleared this line in each of his last six starts. He’s registered a 30% called plus swinging strike rate over those starts, and seems to have his changeup working in addition to his cutter and four-seam fastball. After a strikeout averse start, the Mariners have come back down to earth, and have the league’s fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate over the last month.

Pick Made: Mon 11:24 am UTC on DraftKings
Jun 09 2025, 11:10 pm UTC
League
Tampa Bay
10
@ Boston
8
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Caesar’s. Brayan Bello has failed to clear this line in six of his nine starts this season. He’s specifically struggled against lefties, allowing a .846 OPS, and a 14.8% walk rate. He’ll face between five and seven left handed hitters in today’s Rays lineup - and Tampa has been mashing right handed pitching of late, with a .797 OPS and 129 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Pick Made: Mon 11:23 am UTC on Caesars
Jun 08 2025, 8:07 pm UTC
League
Seattle
3
@ L.A. Angels
2
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

DraftKings / B365. George Kirby has yet to register more than four strikeouts in any of his three starts. Typically more dominant at home and against left-handed hitters, Kirby won’t have either of those splits in Los Angeles, against a right-handed heavy lineup. Plus, the Angels have been better of late in terms of strikeouts, with only a 22% K% vs right handed pitching over the last two weeks.

Pick Made: Sun 2:14 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jun 08 2025, 8:05 pm UTC
League
Atlanta
3
@ San Francisco
4
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

DraftKings. Coming off an elbow injury, Spencer Strider has yet to reclaim his dominant form. He’s pitched to a 5.68 ERA (6.41 xERA) and his hard hit and whiff rates have moved in the opposite direction. His velocity is down a tick, and the Braves have remained cautious: Strider has yet to pitch into the sixth inning in each of his four starts. Now pitching on four days rest for the first time this season with a fresh bullpen, I don’t expect today to be the day where the Braves push their young ace. Plus, the Giants see the fourth most pitches per plate appearance.

Pick Made: Sun 2:06 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jun 08 2025, 5:35 pm UTC
League
Philadelphia
1
@ Pittsburgh
2
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

FanDuel at -124. Had to wait this one out due to weather concerns, but there is enough of a window to fire on this strikeout prop. Paul Skenes has revved it up, clearing this line in four straight starts. He’ll face a weaker Phillies lineup today, with no Bryce Harper and the backup catcher slotted in.

Pick Made: Sun 5:04 pm UTC on BetRivers
Jun 08 2025, 2:05 am UTC
League
Baltimore
7
@ Athletics
4
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

DraftKings. Luis Severino has really struggled at home this season, pitching to a 6.99 ERA, with a .284 OBA. Tonight, he’ll face an Orioles lineup he’s struggled with in the past, and one that is starting to turn the corner offensively. Severino has allowed at least three earned runs in six of eight home games, but is also almost guaranteed to throw his customary 90+ pitches. Fantastic hitting conditions tonight in Sacramento as well.

Pick Made: Jun 08, 1:06 am UTC on DraftKings
Jun 08 2025, 1:40 am UTC
League
N.Y. Mets
8
@ Colorado
1
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

DraftKings. We squeaked by yesterday with our Kodai Senga under strikeouts bet, and I’m going back to the well and trusting the Rockies again tonight. Clay Holmes is under this line in eight of twelve starts, including each of his last seven.

Pick Made: Jun 07, 2:12 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jun 07 2025, 11:35 pm UTC
League
Boston
10
@ N.Y. Yankees
7
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Caesar’s. Ryan Yarbrough is amidst a career resurgence with the Yankees. Pitching to a 2.83 ERA (2.91 xERA), Yarbrough is posting career high strikeout and whiff numbers (24.7% strikeout rate and 79th percentile in whiff rate). Traditionally a finesse pitcher, Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake has revamped the lefty’s changeup, and unlocked a tick more velocity on his fast balls. The result has yielded 40 strikeouts in 41.1 innings pitched, and five plus in each of his last three starts. He’s now fully built up, and facing a Red Sox roster that features seven hitters with at least a 20% strikeout rate against lefties. Would bet this line up to -155.

Pick Made: Jun 07, 10:47 pm UTC on Caesars
Jun 07 2025, 8:05 pm UTC
League
Atlanta
2
@ San Francisco
3
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

FanDuel. Logan Webb has cleared this strikeout line in nine of his twelve fully stretched out starts this season. He’ll now face the Braves who are middle of the pack on the strikeout front (22.6% K% versus righties this season, 24.7% over the last two weeks). He’s had success against the heart of this Braves lineup historically, and has yet to face them this season with his re-tooled changeup.

Pick Made: Jun 07, 12:58 pm UTC on FanDuel
Jun 07 2025, 2:15 am UTC
League
Atlanta
4
@ San Francisco
5
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

FanDuel. We’re getting a low line on Hayden Birdsong’s fourth start. The second year righty has supplanted Jordan Hicks in the rotation, and has cleared this line in each of his last two starts. Overall, he’s registered 128 strikeouts in a 110 major league innings. He’s built up to a full workload, and gets a matchup against the Braves, whose bats have cooled off over the last two weeks.

Pick Made: Jun 07, 1:44 am UTC on FanDuel
Jun 07 2025, 1:38 am UTC
League
Seattle
4
@ L.A. Angels
5
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

DraftKings. Kyle Hendricks has faltered on this outs prop line in seven of eleven starts this season. Depsite pitching into the sixth inning in each of his last five starts, this is an awful matchup on paper for the righty. Not only do the Mariners see the most pitches per plate appearance in baseball, but they’re also starting six lefties tonight. Hendricks’ pitch efficiency and walk rate are much worse versus southpaws.

Pick Made: Jun 07, 1:22 am UTC on DraftKings
Jun 07 2025, 12:40 am UTC
League
N.Y. Mets
4
@ Colorado
2
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

DraftKings. Let’s get this out of the way from the jump - yes, I’m trusting the Rockies lineup here. They’ve been better at home recently with a 22.7% K% vs righties over the last month (was 27% before that). Recently, they’ve inserte some better contact hitters into their lineup, including Orlando Arcia, Thairo Estrada, and Tyler Freeman. Kodai Senga has been brilliant this season with a 1.60 ERA, but is still under this line in eight of eleven starts, including four of five on the road. Plus, he’s making his first career start at Coors Field, which traditionally wreaks havoc on pitchers overly reliant on movement (like Senga with his forkball).

Pick Made: Jun 06, 2:47 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jun 05 2025, 6:10 pm UTC
League
Detroit
2
@ Chi. White Sox
3
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Caesar’s. Casey Mize has been brilliant against left-handed hitters this season, thanks in part to a revamped splitter. He’s held southpaws to a .198 average, while striking out 29% of them. The White Sox clearly know this, and still decided to start all five left handed hitters they have on their active roster. And three of the righties (Michael Taylor, Vinny Capra and Tim Elko) all strikeout at a well above average rate. It’s a great matchup, and Mize has cleared this line in five of nine games as

Pick Made: Jun 05, 4:01 pm UTC on Caesars
Jun 05 2025, 5:45 pm UTC
League
Kansas City
5
@ St. Louis
6
+433
27-19 in Last 46 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

FanDuel at -114. Noah Cameron has been excellent for the Royals in his first four Major League starts. Pitching to a 1.05 ERA (3.15 xERA), Cameron has pitched into the seventh inning in each outing. This includes a 6.2 inning, 2-hit, 1-run performance against the Cardinals. Now pitching in the first leg of a double header against a Cardinals team that’s sputtered out offensively (.668 OPS the last two weeks), I love Cameron on this outs line.

Pick Made: Jun 05, 3:42 pm UTC on DraftKings
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