Caesar’s. Dylan Cease has remained under this line in eight of thirteen starts this season. He’ll face off against a patient Dodgers lineup whom Cease has not much success against historically.

DraftKings. Merrill Kelly has cleared this line in each of his last six starts. He’s registered a 30% called plus swinging strike rate over those starts, and seems to have his changeup working in addition to his cutter and four-seam fastball. After a strikeout averse start, the Mariners have come back down to earth, and have the league’s fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate over the last month.

Caesar’s. Brayan Bello has failed to clear this line in six of his nine starts this season. He’s specifically struggled against lefties, allowing a .846 OPS, and a 14.8% walk rate. He’ll face between five and seven left handed hitters in today’s Rays lineup - and Tampa has been mashing right handed pitching of late, with a .797 OPS and 129 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

DraftKings / B365. George Kirby has yet to register more than four strikeouts in any of his three starts. Typically more dominant at home and against left-handed hitters, Kirby won’t have either of those splits in Los Angeles, against a right-handed heavy lineup. Plus, the Angels have been better of late in terms of strikeouts, with only a 22% K% vs right handed pitching over the last two weeks.

DraftKings. Coming off an elbow injury, Spencer Strider has yet to reclaim his dominant form. He’s pitched to a 5.68 ERA (6.41 xERA) and his hard hit and whiff rates have moved in the opposite direction. His velocity is down a tick, and the Braves have remained cautious: Strider has yet to pitch into the sixth inning in each of his four starts. Now pitching on four days rest for the first time this season with a fresh bullpen, I don’t expect today to be the day where the Braves push their young ace. Plus, the Giants see the fourth most pitches per plate appearance.

FanDuel at -124. Had to wait this one out due to weather concerns, but there is enough of a window to fire on this strikeout prop. Paul Skenes has revved it up, clearing this line in four straight starts. He’ll face a weaker Phillies lineup today, with no Bryce Harper and the backup catcher slotted in.

DraftKings. Luis Severino has really struggled at home this season, pitching to a 6.99 ERA, with a .284 OBA. Tonight, he’ll face an Orioles lineup he’s struggled with in the past, and one that is starting to turn the corner offensively. Severino has allowed at least three earned runs in six of eight home games, but is also almost guaranteed to throw his customary 90+ pitches. Fantastic hitting conditions tonight in Sacramento as well.

DraftKings. We squeaked by yesterday with our Kodai Senga under strikeouts bet, and I’m going back to the well and trusting the Rockies again tonight. Clay Holmes is under this line in eight of twelve starts, including each of his last seven.

Caesar’s. Ryan Yarbrough is amidst a career resurgence with the Yankees. Pitching to a 2.83 ERA (2.91 xERA), Yarbrough is posting career high strikeout and whiff numbers (24.7% strikeout rate and 79th percentile in whiff rate). Traditionally a finesse pitcher, Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake has revamped the lefty’s changeup, and unlocked a tick more velocity on his fast balls. The result has yielded 40 strikeouts in 41.1 innings pitched, and five plus in each of his last three starts. He’s now fully built up, and facing a Red Sox roster that features seven hitters with at least a 20% strikeout rate against lefties. Would bet this line up to -155.

FanDuel. Logan Webb has cleared this strikeout line in nine of his twelve fully stretched out starts this season. He’ll now face the Braves who are middle of the pack on the strikeout front (22.6% K% versus righties this season, 24.7% over the last two weeks). He’s had success against the heart of this Braves lineup historically, and has yet to face them this season with his re-tooled changeup.

FanDuel. We’re getting a low line on Hayden Birdsong’s fourth start. The second year righty has supplanted Jordan Hicks in the rotation, and has cleared this line in each of his last two starts. Overall, he’s registered 128 strikeouts in a 110 major league innings. He’s built up to a full workload, and gets a matchup against the Braves, whose bats have cooled off over the last two weeks.

DraftKings. Kyle Hendricks has faltered on this outs prop line in seven of eleven starts this season. Depsite pitching into the sixth inning in each of his last five starts, this is an awful matchup on paper for the righty. Not only do the Mariners see the most pitches per plate appearance in baseball, but they’re also starting six lefties tonight. Hendricks’ pitch efficiency and walk rate are much worse versus southpaws.

DraftKings. Let’s get this out of the way from the jump - yes, I’m trusting the Rockies lineup here. They’ve been better at home recently with a 22.7% K% vs righties over the last month (was 27% before that). Recently, they’ve inserte some better contact hitters into their lineup, including Orlando Arcia, Thairo Estrada, and Tyler Freeman. Kodai Senga has been brilliant this season with a 1.60 ERA, but is still under this line in eight of eleven starts, including four of five on the road. Plus, he’s making his first career start at Coors Field, which traditionally wreaks havoc on pitchers overly reliant on movement (like Senga with his forkball).

Caesar’s. Casey Mize has been brilliant against left-handed hitters this season, thanks in part to a revamped splitter. He’s held southpaws to a .198 average, while striking out 29% of them. The White Sox clearly know this, and still decided to start all five left handed hitters they have on their active roster. And three of the righties (Michael Taylor, Vinny Capra and Tim Elko) all strikeout at a well above average rate. It’s a great matchup, and Mize has cleared this line in five of nine games as

FanDuel at -114. Noah Cameron has been excellent for the Royals in his first four Major League starts. Pitching to a 1.05 ERA (3.15 xERA), Cameron has pitched into the seventh inning in each outing. This includes a 6.2 inning, 2-hit, 1-run performance against the Cardinals. Now pitching in the first leg of a double header against a Cardinals team that’s sputtered out offensively (.668 OPS the last two weeks), I love Cameron on this outs line.