DraftKings. Dustin May has been a different pitcher at home this season, with a 2.97 ERA, .215 OBA, and 37 strikeouts in 33.1 innings. He’s cleared this line in all six home games. May will face a Giants team that’s been middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts against righties (22.3% over their last two weeks). I have May clearing this in five innings.

Caesar’s. Luis Ortiz has stayed under this line in seven of his thirteen starts, including five of seven away from home. He struggles outside of Cleveland, with a 5.40 ERA and a 12.2% walk rate. He also struggles more against lefties, with a .796 OPS allowed and a 14.4% walk rate. He’ll get six lefties from Seattle today, who as a team see the second most pitches per plate appearance. And Seattle’s bats have come alive, with a .794 OPS over the last 10 days against right handed pitching.

Caesar’s. Jose Quintana has failed to clear this line in six of his eight starts. He’ll now face off against one of the better contact teams - the Cardinals. St. Louis owns the fifth lowest whiff rate as a team this season, and Quintana’s whiff rate sits in the sixth percentile of all pitchers.

Caesar’s. Buying high on Yoshinobu Yamamoto who has cleared this in three of his last four starts, all being tough matchups. The Giants struggle more on the road against righties (24% K%), are without one of their best hitters (Matt Chapman) and are coming off a series in the Coors Field altitude.

DraftKings. If you’ve been following my bets throughout the years, you know I’m a massive Logan Webb fan. That being said, this is a very high line for the Giants ace in a brutal matchup. The Dodgers have historically hit Webb well (collective .900 OPS against him, in over 210 plate appearances), and they crush righties at home: .924 OPS and a 158 wRC+. Webb has typically struggled a bit more on the road as well - 3.95 ERA and under this line in five of seven starts this season.

DraftKings. Freddy Peralta is a scary fade - he can punch out double digit guys any given start. But the fact is that we’ve seen the Brewers ace pitch to contact a bit more as the season has drawn on. Peralta is under this line in seven of his last ten starts. He’ll get a familiar interdivisional opponent in the Cardinals - St. Louis has been one of the more strikeout resistant teams all season, with a 19% strikeout rate against righties (20% over the last two weeks).

DraftKings. Clay Holmes has stayed under this line in eight of his thirteen starts, including seven of his last eight. Averaging less than a strikeout per inning, Holmes’ strikeout rate sits slightly below average. He’ll face a Rays lineup that features five hitters with below average strikeout rates against right handed pitching. Holmes excels pitching to contact, with an elite ground ball rate, and the Rays only sport a 20% strikeout rate against ground-ball pitchers.

Caesar’s. Michael Soroka has allowed at least five hits in five of his seven starts this season. He pounds the zone, leading all qualified starting pitchers in zone percentage this season. The Mets don’t swing and miss much, with the fourth lowest whiff rate. Thus, I expect a lot of contact today - the Mets as is have a .277 batting average against righties over the last two weeks. Soroka has struggled more against lefties (.259 average), and the Mets likely start six southpaws.

DraftKings. Bailey Ober has failed to clear this line in ten of his 13 starts this season. The Rangers had struggled with strikeouts, but now are trotting out their regular, less K-prone lineup. Over the last week against righties, Texas’s punchout rate has declined to 20%. Ober has below average whiff rates this season, and the Rangers maintain the highest zone swing percentage in baseball. I’m expecting more contact than not today - take the under.

FanDuel at -120. Reds have won five in a row, and the Guardians have lost six of eight. But what stands out here is the pitching matchup. Nick Lodolo has been solid with a 3.21 ERA (1.25 across his seven road starts). He’s been relying on his changeup more as the season has worn on, and the Guardians are a bottom eight team in weighted runs above average against the pitch. Overall, Cleveland has been brutal against left handed pitching, with a .570 OPS over the last thirty days. Logan Allen is on the bump for the Guardians, and he’s registered a 5.88 ERA over his last eight outings. I’ll buy the Reds momentum here, and take them on the first five innings money-line.

Caesar’s. Dylan Cease has remained under this line in eight of thirteen starts this season. He’ll face off against a patient Dodgers lineup whom Cease has not much success against historically.

DraftKings. Merrill Kelly has cleared this line in each of his last six starts. He’s registered a 30% called plus swinging strike rate over those starts, and seems to have his changeup working in addition to his cutter and four-seam fastball. After a strikeout averse start, the Mariners have come back down to earth, and have the league’s fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate over the last month.

Caesar’s. Brayan Bello has failed to clear this line in six of his nine starts this season. He’s specifically struggled against lefties, allowing a .846 OPS, and a 14.8% walk rate. He’ll face between five and seven left handed hitters in today’s Rays lineup - and Tampa has been mashing right handed pitching of late, with a .797 OPS and 129 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

DraftKings / B365. George Kirby has yet to register more than four strikeouts in any of his three starts. Typically more dominant at home and against left-handed hitters, Kirby won’t have either of those splits in Los Angeles, against a right-handed heavy lineup. Plus, the Angels have been better of late in terms of strikeouts, with only a 22% K% vs right handed pitching over the last two weeks.

DraftKings. Coming off an elbow injury, Spencer Strider has yet to reclaim his dominant form. He’s pitched to a 5.68 ERA (6.41 xERA) and his hard hit and whiff rates have moved in the opposite direction. His velocity is down a tick, and the Braves have remained cautious: Strider has yet to pitch into the sixth inning in each of his four starts. Now pitching on four days rest for the first time this season with a fresh bullpen, I don’t expect today to be the day where the Braves push their young ace. Plus, the Giants see the fourth most pitches per plate appearance.