The Jays have won four straight but I struggle to believe they sweep the Twins, one of MLB's best home clubs, especially with Toronto's bullpen quite taxed. Closer Jeff Hoffman saved both in the series so far, for example. Sunday starter Bowden Francis (2-7, 5.84) had a breakout final few months in 2024 but has massively regressed in 2025. Francis is tied for the MLB lead with 17 HRs allowed. The Twins' Joe Ryan has a 2.89 home ERA and had a dominant '24 start against Toronto.

End of a trip and having already won this series, a letdown spot for Houston. Likely no Josh Hader or top setup man Shawn Dubin for the Stros as both pitched Friday and Saturday. No Jose Altuve in the lineup. Obviously a tad more motivation for the Guardians to avoid a pretty rare home sweep. Tanner Bibee has a 2.43 home ERA.

The Rays cashed for us today -- without former All-Star 1B Yandy Diaz, who got a rest day -- and I see no reason not to back them again Saturday vs. awful Miami. Tampa's scheduled starter on the mound is Taj Bradley, who has allowed fewer than three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and gone seven strong in back-to-back. That lone start in there Bradley allowed more than two earned? May 16 in Miami when he gave up five runs over four. But I consider that largely a fluke, and Bradley's home splits are better. The Rays have won four straight and the Marlins have dropped five in a row and totaled just 13 runs.

Looks like the Mets F5 will fail and I don't feel like being underwater today, even if only slightly, so let's throw a half-unit on this. Don't consider it a chase as I'm gonna watch it (with the hockey) and want a rooting interest. Kinda interesting the Giants have a much better record, are home and a starting pitcher with better numbers yet decent dogs. Braves No. 1 catcher Drake Baldwin (.310, 7 HR) is sitting. Solid price at +1.5.

Note that some rain is in the forecast in Denver. I have some modest trap game worries for the Mets, but New York's Kodai Senga has been so good (1.60 ERA) and Colorado's Antonio Senzatela so bad (1-10, 7.14 ERA) that we have to play the F5.

It would be so baseball if the Marlins won this standalone game after being humiliated to start the week by being swept at home by Colorado. Pitcher Edwin Cabrera has been quite good of late but historically has been much worse (and wilder) on the road. Tampa Bay has won three straight and 10 of its past 11 at its temporary home of Steinbrenner Field.

This might be utterly stupid with winds blowing out a bit in LA, but no Francisco Lindor (or former batting champion Jeff McNeil, who has a six-game hitting streak) for the Mets, and no Freddie Freeman (or Max Muncy, who had two homers Tuesday) for the Dodgers. That's a lot of thunder.

The Twins have been crushing the Athletics in this series -- I didn't even fade Zebby(!)/Stella(!) last night -- so this might look stupid. But great price and feels like a super-trappish spot for Minny at the end of its longest trip of the season. Most likely, Carlos Correa sits out after missing last night with back troubles. No reason to put him in there in a matinee ahead of a decently long flight home. I expect a few regulars to sit.

We like under -200 on Under 1.5 hits where possible. This seems a tad generous considering the Phils are starting lefty Jesus "Rolls" Luzardo, and he has a 2.29 ERA on the road and an opponents' BA of .233. Toronto's Bo Bichette hits righty and you'd think he would have better splits off a southpaw. You'd be wrong. He's hitting .216 off them compared to .290 off righties. Bichette has not faced Luzardo in a RS game. Our model doesn't even have Bo at one full hit. I'm guessing Bo's dad Dante was a big Dukes of Hazzard fan. Wonder if he has a brother named Luke or maybe even Cooter.

I'm huge on Detroit's Casey Mize (6-1, 2.82 ERA) this year as I played a little on him to win the AL Cy Young at long odds -- currently +10000. Actually, my Tigers-crazy fan Mom wanted me to do it for her but if it somehow hits, I won't tell her that I did:) Detroit's top HR guy, Kerry Carpenter, is back in the lineup after missing Wednesday. The White Sox lineup is once again comical at spots 5-9 and my boy Vinny Capra (.088 average) is starting at short today. I can almost guarantee you that I'll be fading the Pale Hose anytime VC is in the starting IX. He almost makes former daily White Sox fade Martin Maldonado look like Ted Williams.

Probably too high -- another spot -1 would be swell, even if pushes -- but the White Sox lineup was posted and it's awful. Not that it's not usually awful, but Josh Palacios, Tim Elko, Josh Rojas, Michael Taylor and Korey Lee are the bottom five. None of them are hitting my weight -- and I'm 6-foot-3 (6-6 in heels) -- and only a few are even hitting Paris Hilton's weight. I have no idea what Paris weighs these days and could not possibly care less. The Sox routed the Tigers last night so I'm sure there's a tad more motivation. Detroit has two losses in its past nine -- scored one or fewer run in both. Confident that won't be the case here.

Haven't played a full-game total in a while. Not loving the F5 numbers. The Jays haven't seen Top 10 Phillies prospect Mick Abel, who threw six shutout innings in his MLB debut a couple of weeks ago vs. Pittsburgh. Toronto's Jose Berrios comes off his best start of the year and has a quality start in five of his past six. Only playing this with the hook, not at 9.

If the Marlins have any pride whatsoever, they will play this Wednesday matinee like it's Game 7 of the World Series to avoid an utterly embarrassing home sweep (not like any fans will be there to see it; SL has more Discord followers than may attend this whole series). Or at least play like it's The Bad News Bears Go to Japan, which may well be the worst movie ever made. I never thought I would say in 2025 that the Rockies are in a letdown spot but they are as it's also the end of their longest trip of the season. I'm thinking some South Beach was in order late Tuesday night with the team ending a streak of 22 straight series losses.

What a Bizarro Monday. Seven MLB games, seven road winners. My Angels-Red Sox F5 Under pick went Over in the top of the first! That made me laugh a little. I expect back to normality tonight when the Dodgers should have both Mookie Betts and Will Smith in the lineup as LA looks to avoid a rare three-game skid. Mets closer Edwin Diaz and top setup man Huascar Brazoban are likely not available. Starter Tylor Megill has a 4.71 road ERA. Third baseman Mark Vientos left last night's 10-inning win injured.

Minnesota's Pablo Lopez has been excellent this season and he's more than capable of going at least 6.1 innings. But he has in only two of 10 starts this year and is pitching at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park for the first time in his career. It will be hot and winds blowing out at 10 mph tonight in Sac-Town. Doesn't seem like a night where Lopez would come out for the seventh, in other words.