The Cubs pounded Andrew Heaney on April 29, homering twice and plating four runs as the lefty failed to strike out anyone before leaving. Heaney walked three over 4.2 innings. For the season, Heaney has a much higher expected ERA (4.70) than actual ERA (3.23). Collectively, current Cubs own a .904 OPS against Heaney. Look for Jameson Taillon, who's given up five earned runs over his last four starts, to outpitch Heaney and hand the Cubs a lead through five.

The Yankees own a .904 OPS over the past seven days, and I like them to get to Royals starter Seth Lugo. He has an expected ERA of 5.22 compared to his actual ERA of 3.46. The Yankees are 5-0 against the Royals, outscoring them 28-11. I bet the Yankees because I believe they should be -150 in this spot.

The White Sox have won five of seven, and I like their starting pitching matchup in this battle of rookies. Chicago's Sean Burke has gone at least six innings in three straight starts, allowing 1, 2 and 2 earned runs. Houston's Ryan Gusto is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA over his last seven starts. He was ineffective in a May 4 appearance against the White Sox. Back Chicago to at least be tied through five.

Zach Eflin has fanned 13 batters and walked one over his last two starts, and I bet him to get Baltimore off to a strong start against the visiting Tigers. Detroit counters with Casey Mize, who hasn't been sharp since returning May 24 from a strained hamstring. In those three starts, Mize allowed 18 hits and seven walks in 13 innings, with a 47 percent hard-hit rate. The Orioles' lineup is getting healthier. Back the hosts in the first five innings.

Ryan Pepiot fanned eight Boston batters when he faced the Red Sox on April 15. He's also coming off an eight-strikeout performance versus Texas. The Red Sox struck out 12 times Monday (in 11 innings) and own the second-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching over the past month. I would still play this Over 5.5 at plus money.

The Cardinals are 22-11 at home and host a Blue Jays' team that's been much less potent on the road. Toronto averages 3.2 runs on the road, compared to 5.14 at home. As a result, the Blue Jays are 13-17 on the road. Jose Berrios has been fortunate to this point, with a 3.67 ERA but an expected ERA of 4.61. Back the Cardinals behind ground-ball inducer Andre Pallante.

The Braves have lost six straight, and Spencer Strider is struggling with his command. I bet the GIants in the first five behind Landen Roupp, whose nasty breaking pitches have helped him string together four oustanding performances. He's allowed just a 30.9 percent hard-hit rate this season.

Bo Bichette is coming off a quiet game, but I like the value on him to score from the leadoff spot at Minnesota. Twins starter Joe Ryan has been worse during the daytime (4.67 ERA) and he's facing a Blue Jays' offense that ranks second in OPS (.814) over the past 15 days. Bichette is 2 for 6 lifetime against Ryan; he's coming off his first hitless game since May 26. Look for BIchette to start at least one rally Sunday.

The Brewers have won nine of 10, and I bet them to stay hot behind impressive rookie Chad Patrick. He’s allowed three earned runs over his last three starts. The regression monster is starting to hit Padres starter Randy Vasquez. San Diego also could be down two key hitters due to injury.

The Rays own the best OPS over the past 15 days, while the Rangers sport the worst. Hard-throwing Jack Leiter is coming off a dominant performance, but I love this matchup for the Tampa Bay lineup. Leiter is giving up too many barrels, not to mention an expected slugging percentage of .448. Back Tampa to send the Rangers to their 12th loss in 16 games.

This is the first game of a day-night doubleheader, following Wednesday's rainout. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has dominated the Royals, this season and lifetime, but there are plenty of warning signs in his metrics. Mikolas has allowed a 42.9 percent hard-hit rate and a .463 expected slugging percentage. K.C.'s Noah Cameron has been brilliant in each of his four starts. Back the Royals, who won 10-7 in St. Louis on Tuesday, to at least be tied through five.

Jose Berrios' underlying metrics aren't nearly as good as his surface numbers indicate. I love the Phillies' offense in this matchup now that Bryce Harper has returned. Harper homered, walked and scored twice in Tuesday's 8-3 win. I bet the Phillies in the first five because I believe they'll give rookie Mick Abel the run support he needs.

The Red Sox have lost eight of 10 as they try to avoid the sweep. The Angels have won three of five since Mike Trout returned, with the slugger going 9 for 18 with five RBI in that span. Wednesday afternoon, I like the Angels to start strong against Lucas Giolito. He's allowing a career-high 43 percent hard-hit rate, and has given up an expected slugging percentage of .517. Back the Angels to at least be tied through five.

The Blue Jays' Ernie Clement, batting sixth and playing first base Sunday, has nine hits in this series already. That includes two homers and three doubles. He is slugging .714 against left-handed pitching as he prepares to face Athletics lefty J.P. Sears. I also bet Clement to go Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI in a market that's not offered here. Lifetime he's 2 for 6 with an RBI against Sears, though neither hit went for extra bases. Back Clement to stay hot.

The Rangers have lost eight of 10, in large part because of their offensive woes. Texas owns an MLB-worst .537 OPS over the last 15 days. Now the Rangers have to deal with Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore (2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). The lefty has allowed two or fewer runs in eight straight starts. Texas counters with Jack Leiter, who carries an expected ERA of 4.87. Back St. Louis to improve to 19-7 in May.