Bruce's Picks (3 Live)
Are oddsmakers paying too much respect to the NBA Zig-Zag?...
Bruce's Past Picks
We feel pretty confident that Paul Skenes is going to outpitch Cade Horton this afternoon at Wrigley Field. Now, can the Bucs translate that into a win? Skenes has an 0.57 ERA in two June starts, and a 1.36 ERA his last nine starts. On the road this season, his ERA is 1.19. Horton? The Cubs did win his first five starts, mostly because they scored plenty of runs, but Horton faltered in his last outing, allowing 4 runs and seven hits across just 5 IP in last Sunday's loss to the Tigers. Skenes on the mound is the one scenario in which we don't mind backing the Pirates on the road! Play Pirates on the Money Line.
It the same drill for the Pirates in games started by capable Andrew Heaney (perhaps soon to be dangled at the trade deadline to any contender looking for a rotation piece), who has been mostly effective with a 3.24 ERA but usually doesn't last much beyond the fifth inning. Moreover, he was dealing with a minor calf issue when he left the game last weekend vs. the Phils. The Bucs have won five of six, but their bullpen has proven unreliable all season, and ex-Pirate Jameson Taillon (1.75 ERA his last four starts) should pick up where he left off last time for the Cubs, allowing just one run across 7 IP in a win over the Tigers. Play Cubs on Run Line
At the moment, this doesn't feel like some of Edmonton's past series when the Oilers were slow to get going before recovering. The Game 3 meltdown in Sunrise alarmed a steady stream to the penalty box set up power play after power play for the Panthers. Last season, when the Oilers fell behind 3-0 in this finals matchup, it was because goal scoring had dried up, with just four in the first three games, before climbing back into the series by scoring 18 the next three games to force Game Seven. Repeat? Not sure. Stuart Skinner had also been holding up well in goal but he was pulled in Game 3, though he gets another chance tonight. Play Panthers on the Puck Line.
So constant has been this angle that It's hard to mistake this scoring trend in Panthers-Oilers games this season. At least seven goals have been scored in all five of the previous meetings. The Panthers, in particular, haven't slowed down in the Finals, racking up 14 goals in the first three games. Meanwhile, though Edmonton's offense has slowed the past five periods, at some point Connor McDavid can be expected to start scoring goals (he doesn't have any yet in the Finals). The bigger concern for the Oilers right now appears in goal, where Stuart Skinner might be regressing back into his Mr. Hyde routine, and pulled by Kris Knoblauch in Game 3 (Skinner gets one more chance tonight). Play Oilers-Panthers Over.
If any team is capable of quick recovery, it's the Tigers, who also have Tarik Skubal on the mound with a score to settle from last night when the Birds romped 10-1. It's also a chance to go against Baltimore's erratic Dean Kremer, who has stabilized somewhat since a poor April when posting a 6.75 ERA, though he had problems last Friday in Sacramento vs. the A's, allowing five runs and eight hits across just 5 1/3 IP in a Baltimore loss. As for Skubal, nothing bad to say, especially his last three starts, allowing just one run and 12 hits across 24 1/3 IP (0.37 ERA!) while striking out 26 and walking ZERO! Play Tigers on Run Line
Much like Sinner vs. Alcaraz at Roland Garros last Sunday, this series has swung back-and-forth. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that the Rangers were held to two runs in Wednesday's loss after piling up 16 on Tuesday. But if these results are indeed see-sawing, we don't mind backing Texas to square this series behind Patrick Corbin (3.52 ERA), who has been serviceable all season and yet to allow more than three runs in one of his starts. The Rangers also catch the Twins' Bailey Ober off of a shallow effort last Friday vs. Toronto, allowing five runs (two homers) in 7 IP of a 6-4 loss. Play Rangers on Money Line
Trends-trends-trends...what to do? There's the Game 3 hex for the Pacers, who have lost and failed to cover all 3s in these playoffs. Then there's the Thunder's 0-7 spread mark as a visitor this postseason. For good measure, OKC is also 0-3 vs. the line in its Game 3s. The Pacers were understandably flat in Game 2, having already guaranteed a road split, and would expect the big guns (Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner) to step it up at home. Indy can make the Thunder play defense sideline-to-sideline, but can't abandon interior scoring as in Game 2. As OKC hasn't been the same team on the road in these playoffs, there's a case for the Pacers. Play Pacers.
We waited almost the entire 48 minutes for Game 2 to clear 228.5, but the scoreline did nudge over on Sunday. There's another gear we can see from Indiana, especially at home in the Fieldhouse, where the Pacers scored 127.5 in their last two as host against the Knicks in the East finals. The big guns for Indiana, especially Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, are capable of inflicting much more scoring damage than they did in Game 2. Note Indy scored 66 points after intermission in its Game 1 win and 56 in the 2nd half of a flat effort on Sunday, and the Pacers have scored 125 or more in three of their last four at home in the playoffs. Play Thunder-Pacers Over.
Who is the AL's hottest pitcher since the beginning of May? It It can be argued that it's KC's Kris Bubic, as across his last six starts, he has an 0.69 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP, both stellar numbers. The Royals should also be in a very ornery mood tonight after being whipped 10-2 last night as rookie starter Noah Cameron finally hit the wall against the big Yankees bats. For New York, however, it's not Max Fried on the mound tonight, but rather Clarke Schmidt, whose numbers are not quite as impressive (including a 4.79 ERA on the road), and the Yanks have lost in three of his last four starts. Play Royals on Money Line
Call us a bit perplexed by the prices in this series and Detroit not being favored for a second straight night in Baltimore. With MLB's best record (Tigers 44-24) against arguably its most disappointing team, the markets seem to be reading a bit too much into efforts by the respective starting pitchers. Which shouldn't be the end-all anyway, especially as the last two quality starts by the Birds' Zach Elfin have come vs. the inconsistent bats of the Chisox and Mariners. Would much rather back the Tigers and Casey Mize, who despite a couple of subpar recent efforts still has a 2.91 ERA this season, and, most importantly, Detroit a winner in seven of his ten starts. Play Tigers on Money Line
Here come the Reds! Don't look now, but Cincy is just 3.5 games out of the last NL wild card spot and gaining momentum fast. Pitching continues to impress, especially Andrew Abbott's complete game shutout in Cleveland last night. Now, it's the turn for Nick Lodolo, who has been very representative this season with a solid 3.21 ERA into Wednesday afternoon as Terry Francona is on the verge of a sweep in his return to Cleveland. The Guardians' offense continues to be in and out, and hardly sure Logan Allen (6.75 ERA last three starts) can outpitch Lodolo. Play Reds on the Money Line.
Jesus Luzardo better hope his last two starts were an aberration....if not, he and the Phils are in trouble. Consider that in those last two outings, Luzardo has been raked for 21 runs and 21 hits, plus 5 walks, across just 5 2/3 IP. To summarize, that's an ERA of 33.33, and a WHIP of 4.59. Sheesh! Let's see Luzardo pull out of this major tailspin before considering a recommendation on the Phils (already 2-10 their last 12) with him on the mound. Meanwhile, the Cubs' Ben Brown is off of his two best starts of the season, surrendering just 2 runs across 13 IP, with 16 Ks, against the Reds and Tigers. Play Cubs on the Money Line.