The Padres are 20-10 at home this season while starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has a 1.69 home ERA. Dodgers starter Dustin May has a 5.40 road ERA, too, while I trust the late-inning relievers from the Padres slightly more than the Dodgers. I'll take the plus money.

Antonio Senzatela is the best pitcher in baseball to fade right now with his 7.14 ERA (it's 7.42 at home) and the Rockies should be able to hit Kodai Senga after having just seen him last week. Remember, Coors Field suppresses pitch movement, too. I'm expecting a ton of runs in this one. I'd go over 12.5.

The Cubs are among the best teams in baseball in terms of pitchers per plate appearance and walk rate, plus they hit lefties hard. MacKenzie Gore routinely finishes six innings, but he never goes over 105 pitches and he can be hit. He'll be pulled before he finishes six here and we'll win with plus money.

The Brewers haven't hit left-handed pitchers well this season for the most part and Reds' lefty Andrew Abbott is on some kind of roll. In six May starts, he had a 0.55 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. The Brewers counter with a D.L. Hall and Quinn Priester combo and I like the chances the Reds' offense gets to one of them (or both).

I know Max Fried is a tall order here, but I'm not passing up the chance to get plus money on the Dodgers at home. They are 19-8 in Dodger Stadium and had Thursday off after a road trip. It's a good spot to win.

The Rockies are 3-25 with a negative-76 run differential on the road. The Mets are 21-7 with a plus-34 run differential at home. The most likely outcome is a Mets blowout.

The Mets are one of the toughest teams in baseball to strikeout for left-handed pitchers, sitting in the bottom four there in strikeout rate. Given how overworked the Red Sox bullpen has been of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see Garrett Crochet pitching to contact to get deeper into the game, too. He averages 7.3 strikeouts per start and due to what I said above, I like him to come in under that here.

These two teams combined for 15 runs in both Monday and Tuesday's games. Marlins' starter Max Meyer has a 7.97 ERA in his last four games and faces a stellar Cubs offense. Cubs rookie Cade Horton won't go too deep and has a shaky bullpen behind him.

The Orioles have lost 14 of 16 games and have looked every bit that bad along the way. The Brewers are now 15-9 at home and starting pitcher Chad Patrick has a 3.04 ERA as a starter, but this is mostly about riding the Orioles' losing.

The Cardinals aren't familiar with his stuff (haven't seen him since 2021) and Tarik Skubal has struck out 11, 8, 12 and 11 in his last four starts, respectively. I know eight again is a tall order, but I love the plus money here and, for me, it's more likely he gets there than not.

It's probably time to just fade the Orioles, who have lost 13 of their last 15 and have looked every bit that bad in doing so. Logan Henderson is on the mound for the Brewers and he's been good so far this year in both Triple-A and the majors. Back the Brewers, but more importantly, bet against the O's.

The Braves are much better anyway, having gone 19-10 since April 16. Now they get Spencer Strider back on the mound and Ronald Acuna Jr. back in the lineup which provides a mental boost as well as the obvious on-field upgrade. They face Mitchell Parker of the Nats, who they hit hard last time.

Sutter Health Park is averaging 10.8 runs per game this season. The weather is hot and the wind is blowing out. These teams both have plenty of power hitters and the pitchers aren't going to provide enough resistance to avoid the over.

The Mariners just swept the Padres in San Diego by scores of 5-1, 4-1 and 6-1. The White Sox aren't nearly as tough as the Padres, obviously. Luis Castillo has been dominant in three of his last four starts, too, and his road splits were ruined by one bad start.

This number should be higher. The Orioles are the worst hitting team against lefties in the majors and MacKenzie Gore, a lefty, leads the majors with 75 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings. He averages 8.33 strikeouts per start and struck out the O's eight times a few weeks ago.