JP Sears has allowed 15 home runs this season...

Gunnar Henderson is facing Zack Littell, who he has raked against in his career—going 7-for-15 with 2 home runs. Gunnar is hitting .319 with 7 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season, compared to just .202 with 1 home run against lefties. This line is as low as +220 on DraftKings, so it's not just our model that loves Henderson today. Littell has given up 7 home runs over his last 3 starts and will be pitching in very hitter-friendly conditions in Tampa today. We set Henderson's line at +320 to homer.

James Wood is now up to 18 home runs on the season after going yard yesterday, and the model loves his matchup today. Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela has been getting hit hard all season, especially by left-handed batters, who are hitting over .400 against him. Wood has a .957 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season and a 1.110 OPS in night games compared to just .701 in day games. With favorable splits and a struggling pitcher on the mound, this is a strong spot. We set the line at +375 for Wood to hit a home run.

Jose Altuve has 5 multi-hit games over his last 8 games, but just 1 home run in that span—and only 1 over his last 14 games. Still, he has 10 home runs on the season, so his power hasn't disappeared. Altuve has raked against JP Sears in his career, going 9-for-22 (.409) with 2 home runs and 4 doubles. Playing in the hitter-friendly Athletics' temporary park in Sacramento also boosts his chances of going deep today. We set the line at +450 for Altuve to homer.

Junior Caminero is coming off back-to-back games with a home run—and that was on the road, where he has struggled mightily this season. He's now back at home, where he's hitting .297 with 11 of his 17 home runs. Caminero has also been much better against right-handed pitching this season, posting an .844 OPS with 13 of his 17 home runs coming off righties. He's 0-for-3 in his career vs. Zach Eflin, but he's put the ball in play in all three at-bats. With the Home Run Index at a 9 out of 10, he might not need to get all of the ball to hit one out today. We set the line at +290 for Caminero to homer.

Kyle Schwarber has 42 plate appearances against Sandy Alcantara in his career, but he has yet to hit a home run off him. However, he is 10-for-35 against Alcantara, so he's had a good amount of success. Schwarber is off to a slow start in June after a hot start to the season, but he does have 2 home runs over his last 4 games. Alcantara has put together back-to-back strong starts, but those came against Colorado and Pittsburgh. Even with those outings, his ERA sits at 7.14. Left-handed batters have an .825 OPS against Alcantara this season. We set Schwarber's line at +260 to homer.

Brent Rooker's line is a bit all over the place today, but +450 is great value considering his average line is +350. Rooker has been excellent against left-handed pitching and during day games this season. Against LHPs, he's hitting .321 with a 1.070 OPS. In day games, he's also hitting .321 with a .978 OPS and has 8 home runs in 27 games. Royals' starter Noah Cameron got hit hard in his last start, as some regression was due with MLB teams starting to learn the rookie's tendencies. The weather is also hitter-friendly in today's game, so expect the ball to carry. We set the line at +315 for Rooker to homer.

Brandon Lowe is swinging a hot bat with three straight multi-hit games, going 7-for-13 in that span. While he hasn't homered in those games, Lowe has always been a streaky hitter, and when he's hot, he's usually due to hit some long balls. Griffin Canning has been a revelation for the Mets this season, but he did allow 2 home runs in his last start. Left-handed hitters are batting .266 against Canning this year. Lowe is 1-for-3 in his career against Canning, and that one hit was a home run. We set the line at +405 for Lowe to homer.

This is a matchup play, as the model likes Spencer Torkelson against Wade Miley. Torkelson has a 1.051 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season, while right-handed batters are 9-for-20 (.450) to start the season against Miley. Miley has considerably worse career splits against right-handed batters compared to lefties. Of the 196 home runs he has allowed in his career, 168 have come against right-handed hitters. We set the line at +350 for Torkelson to homer.

This is a buy-low spot for Fernando Tatis Jr., who hasn't hit a home run in 13 games. Over that stretch, he's just 8-for-46, but he has 10 walks to 8 strikeouts—suggesting he's been a bit unlucky on balls in play. Tatis is 4-for-11 in his career against Ryne Nelson, though he hasn't homered off him yet. Having had some success against Nelson should give Tatis confidence in today's matchup. He's hitting .281 with 12 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. Despite his recent struggles, we set the line at +350 for Tatis to homer, so +500 is a strong buy-low opportunity.

Juan Soto has been on a tear over the last week. He has 4 multi-hit games over his last 6 games and 2 home runs over the last 3. Since the calendar flipped to June, Soto has posted a 1.333 OPS. Although he's been more consistent in left-on-left matchups this season, Soto has hit 10 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers. Rays' starter Taj Bradley has lowered his home run rate this season but has still allowed 10 home runs in 13 starts. Soto is 0-for-6 in his career against Bradley, but we expect some regression in Bradley's HR rate and his success against Soto. We set the line at +375 for Soto to homer.

Zach Neto has 5 multi-hit games over his last 8 games played but hasn't homered during that stretch. We expect his power to show back up soon, considering he already has 10 home runs on the season. Neto is hitting over .300 with 6 home runs in just 21 road games this year. He's 0-for-7 in his career against Charlie Morton, but given Morton's inconsistency and 6.59 ERA, we think there's a good chance Neto finds success in this matchup. We set the line at +400 for Neto to homer, so +600 is a strong value play.

Ben Rice is in a bit of a slump, but he's putting together good at-bats and just isn't being rewarded. The Yankees have also faced three left-handed starting pitchers over their last 4 games, so Rice finally gets to go against a righty starter today. Rice has 8 of his 12 home runs and an .848 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. He's also hit 7 of his 12 home runs on the road, where he has a .265 batting average and a .909 OPS. Royals' starter Seth Lugo has given up 5 home runs over his last three starts and left-handers have hit 9 of the 12 home runs he's allowed. We set the line at +475 for Rice to hit a home run.

Spencer Torkelson is showing off the power that made him the #1 overall pick several years ago. He comes into this game riding a 5-game hit streak with 2 home runs over that span. After allowing 10 home runs in his first 9 starts of the season, Dean Kremer hasn't allowed a home run in his last 4 starts. However, he is giving up 7.5 hits per game over those last 4 outings. We expect regression to kick in, with some of those hits turning into home runs. We set the line at +410 for Torkelson to homer.

Carlos Correa is 12-for-38 (.316) with 4 home runs against lefties this season. While it's a small sample size, Correa has been very good against lefties and has historically fared better against them. He has just 1 home run in nearly five times as many at-bats against right-handed pitchers this season. Patrick Corbin has been one of the lone bright spots for the Rangers lately, but he still has a high HR/9 rate and is much worse against right-handed batters than left-handed ones. Correa is just 2-for-9 in his career against Corbin, but he has 4 walks to 2 strikeouts—an indication that he sees the ball well out of Corbin's hand. We set the line at +380 for Correa to homer today.