Jason's Picks (2 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
Thunder games are averaging 113 per first half on the road in playoffs ... and Pacers are averaging 113 at home. Pacers play are frenetic pace at home, more than most, and they won't have as slow of the starts they did in OKC. The PG has to get it going, right? OKC allowing 59/first half on the road and IND won't be held below 50 in the first half again. I love this over 109.5 in alt markets just in case Halliburton is actually hurt and the scoring still slips some. Both these teams can score and score quickly. IND has a +16.9 net rating at home in first half in playoffs; can't forget how significant that's been this postseason.
OKC is battle tested and after going the distance with the Nuggets I expect to see an A road game from them here. They have built up massive late leads in both games in this series and the Thunder can exhale a bit after getting their first finals win. Too much SGA and too many scoring options among the starters and on the bench. The Pacers' PG has been all out of sorts and was better on the road than at home for the postseason on the whole. OKC still hasn't played its best game.
The Thunder slowed down and tried to bleed the clock in the final 5 minutes of Game 1. That won't happen again. They average 122/G in the playoffs at home. This is desperation time which means 48 minutes of high-pace hoops. OKC went 3/17 in the paint (non restricted) in Game 1 after a long layoff. They average 19 PIP in the playoffs. Also show just 29% from catch and shoot spots in Game 1 for 21 points; they average 34/G in C&S spots. Positive regression to the mean is coming here and a return to their normal lineup with real size will help with offensive rebounding and more second-chance shots.
You pay a premium for playing the first half for good reason. OKC has won the first half by 8 points or more in 9 of 10 home playoff games. The Thunder have a ridiculous 30.5 net rating int he first half at home in postseason (nearly twice as good as any other team). They are +15.2 in first half at home in the playoffs and the Pacers are slow starters, -2.3 on road. Maybe OKC blows another big lead but with their season on the line I project them to win the first half by 12 or more. We keep riding this bet.
Long layoffs didn't cause problems for the Thunder before when it came to fast starts - led by 10 at the half of game 1 vs DEN and led by 32 at half of Game 1 vs MEM. They have a ridiculous +31.7 net rating at home in first half of playoff games, playing at fastest pace in playoffs with the best D rating as well. An AST/TO ratio just under 3 with a 60.1 TS%. Another level than what the Pacers have seen in the East. OKC is +15.6 in first half at home and IND have been slower starters on the road at -1.1 in first half. The Pacers have made second-half runs but this should be a shock to their system.
I expect much of this series to be played in the 230s. The Pacers are not going to score enough in a half court to win these games and they have to run. OKC loves to run. OKC has been far mor proficient offensively at home in playoffs, with a 121.8 offensive rating, averaging 123.3/G. Pacers offense far more efficient on the road in playoffs, averaging 116.4/G. Defensive adjustments will be made as series progresses. Thunder are over in 5 of last 7. Pacers are over in 10 of last 14 on the road. IND have some defensive warts.
Jalen Brunson and KAT have been good all series long and I certainly expect a major bounceback from the Pacers starters after a Game 5 letdown. IND has forgot to run and push the tempo twice in this series and it bit them both times. I expect a far greater intention to get to the rim here. This is the lowest total of the series thus far. The Pacers are averaging 117/G in playoffs and Knicks 110. Pacers rarely have two poor shooting outings in a row. Expect a faster start here as well with the crowd behind them in a possible knockout game.
We get the best of the Pacers here, who got a good look at the Knicks cross switching and defensive adjustments and will get back to running at Jalen Brunson and KAT and we will get a far more aggressive version of the IND backcourt. Pacers are 5-2 a home in playoffs and one of those losses came when they stopped pushing pace vs NYK with a big lead. I don't see that happening again.
Pacers have too many scoring options for the Knicks to shutdown. It's a missmatch. Pacers would have swept this already if they'd have maintained their tempo and kept pushing when up 20 in Game 3. They learned from that and will force Knicks to play at their pace with Tyrese Halliburton controlling game from the point. Pacers are over this in 14 of their last 17 games. Pacers are over this in 13 of their last 14 on the road. IND has 120.8 offensive rating on road in playoffs, 62.6 TS%, and bonkers 2.22 asst/TO ratio. Averaging 120/G on road in playoffs. NYK D is far closer to middling than special and their starters get exploited in the own end of the court.
I believe the Pacers will end this series here, but will take those 5 points. If is turns out KAT is iffy for this game, I expect the line to move. Knicks will not be able to keep pace scoring without huge games from him and Jalen Brunson. Pacers too efficient offensively and they shoot three ball better on road and their superior assist/TO ratio will be a big deal in this game again as it's been all series. They have the best player in series and it's not close. NYK 3-5 ATS last 8 games and 2-5 ATS last 7 at The Garden. Deeper series goes more Pacers far superior depth becomes a deciding factor.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the Thunder flirt with 130 again. The three would start falling again in Game 4, as we told you, and they shoot much better at home and know how to show it big when it matters most. Thunder are averaging 123.3/G at home and have scored 118 or more in 15 of their last 18 at home. Not enough of ANT and Julius Randle showing up on the defensive end and OKC is keeping the rebound percentage more than close enough and getting sufficient second chance points. Will push the pace here and also continue to turn the Wolves over like crazy, giving them quick, easy transition baskets.
The Thunder smell blood and I suspect they build up another hefty lead again. Maybe they struggle some in second half to put MIN away but we keep riding them first half at home. They are +13.4 in postseason first half at home with a ridiculous 27.5 net rating, 15 assists/5TO, 49.2% from the field with a 59.7 TS%. Wild metrics. Wolves keep giving the ball away. OKC averaging 63/first half at home this playoffs where they are 7-1. MIN is a -.3 in first half on the road in playoffs. Thunder are smothering their stars.
Pacers regressed in Game 3 in all 3 series and I expect trend to follow with a bounceback here. They lost Sun because they stop running and stopping penetrating for easy shots and getting to the line. To me had more to do with them thinking they won the game in the first 20 minutes than NYK adjustments. Pacers still better and deeper. They have been elite offensive team all playoffs and won't have another 42-point half. They need to attack and make this an over game and I suspect the coaching staff will emphasize that here. At some point Halliburton will have a monster game at home. I suspect it's Mon night. Pacers holding their own on boards more than they did vs Cavs.